Crude oil demand will continue growing over the coming decades as the world’s population increases, the secretary-general of OPEC, Haitham Al Ghais, said this week, predicting a 24% cumulative rise in this demand until 2050.
“There is no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” Al Ghais said at the Canadian Global Energy Show, as quoted by Reuters. The top OPEC official went on to reiterate a warning about the adverse potential consequences of underinvestment in new oil and gas supply—something, in which OPEC has been very consistent over the past few years amid a pressure campaign from anti-oil activists who have the ears of most governments of the developed world for forcing the oil and gas industry to quit its core business.
According to Al Ghais, global investment needs for new oil and gas stand at $17.4 trillion for the next 25 years. For comparison’s sake, the investment needed for achieving a net-zero global economy has been calculated at $110 trillion for the period between 2021 and 2050 but in the past three years the price tag has repeatedly been revised upwards.
OPEC estimates that global oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, which is in stark contrast with the demand estimate of the International Energy Agency. The IEA sees oil demand growth this year at less than 1 million bpd. Although demand rose by 990,000 barrels daily over the first quarter, the IEA expects this to slow considerably to just 650,000 bpd over the remainder of the year.
Meanwhile, supply from non-OPEC producers is shrinking, OPEC also warned earlier this year. OPEC said in the May edition of its monthly oil market report that lower upstream spending amid falling oil prices was set to slow the growth in oil supply from producers outside the OPEC+ pact this year and next.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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