The Northeast Power Coordinating Council Inc. (NPCC) forecast in its 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment that Northeastern North America – New England, the state of New York, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Québec, and the Maritimes – will have adequate electricity this summer.
NPCC’s summer peak electricity demand is projected to be 104,600 MW, about 400 MW lower than last summer. The installed capacity to meet the region’s demand is approximately 157,000 MW, a decrease of 1,300 MW since last summer, primarily due to the retirement of the Pickering G1 and G4 nuclear units in Ontario. Forecasts indicate sufficient transmission and spare capacity to meet peak demand and operating reserves, with spare operable capacity estimated between 4,700 MW and over 17,000 MW, NPCC said in a media release.
“NPCC’s assessment indicates our Region has spare capacity for this summer, which can be used to help mitigate reliability risks that may result from unexpected unavailability of key facilities, fuel supply interruptions, generation maintenance, or higher than anticipated demand”, Charles Dickerson, NPCC President and Chief Executive Officer, said.
Because of its winter peak demand, Québec is predicted to comfortably cover the anticipated electricity demand, allowing for the transfer of excess electricity supplies to other regions if necessary, NPCC noted.
The evaluation took into account a broad spectrum of related risks, such as demand exceeding expectations, uncertainties in projected demand, unforeseen outages of generator plants, transmission limitations between adjacent regions and within NPCC, the execution of operational procedures, the anticipated effects of demand response initiatives, and extra capacity unavailability alongside diminished transfer capabilities, NPCC said.
“NPCC continues to see sustained growth in distributed photovoltaic resources”, Phil Fedora, NPCC Chief Engineer and Senior Vice President of External Affairs, said. “The reduction to NPCC’s summer peak demand due to behind-the-meter photovoltaic resources is estimated to be over 4,000 MW”.
NPCC noted solar storms are predicted to increase in both frequency and intensity this summer.
NPCC said that throughout the summer it will continue monitoring the operational status of the bulk power system. NPCC said that as part of these activities, it carries out daily and week-ahead discussions among NPCC system operators and adjacent regions to share current operating statuses, organize planned maintenance, and assist in securing help during emergency situations.
Additionally, NPCC said it contributes to industry-wide efforts for reliability and security coordination to enhance communication and the sharing of information.
To contact the author, email andreson.n.paul@gmail.com
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