In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 0.3 million barrels for the week ending May 30.
“This follows a 2.8 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model a small increase in crude runs (+0.1 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a moderate increase, with exports (-1.0 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.4 million barrels per day) lower on a nominal basis,” they added.
The strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a nominal reduction (-0.2 million barrels per day) this week,” the Macquarie strategists went on to note in the report.
They added that they “anticipate a smaller increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.5 million barrels) this week”.
Also in the report, the strategists highlighted that, “among products”, they “look for across-the-board builds (gasoline +1.9 million barrels, distillate +0.9 million barrels, jet +1.4 million barrels)”.
“Amidst holiday effects, we model implied demand for these three products at ~13.8 million barrels per day for the week ending May 30,” the strategists went on to state in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on May 29 and included data for the week ending May 23, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 2.8 million barrels from the week ending May 16 to the week ending May 23.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 440.4 million barrels on May 23, 443.2 million barrels on May 16, and 454.7 million barrels on May 24, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 401.3 million barrels on May 23, 400.5 million barrels on May 16, and 369.3 million barrels on May 24, 2024, the report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.623 billion barrels on May 23, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 0.2 million barrels week on week and down 8.7 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on May 27 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending May 23.
“This follows a 1.3 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly looser than our expectations,” the Macquarie strategists stated in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on June 4 and will include data for the week ending May 30. The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, the organization states on its website.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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