China’s decades-long reign as the world’s top oil demand driver is nearing its end, according to new research published by Moody’s Investors Service demonstrating that China’s crude demand is expected to peak within the next 3–5 years, while India will continue to hold the lead in global oil demand growth through at least 2030.
Moody’s attributes China’s demand plateau to slowing economic growth, a shrinking population, a plateau in vehicle ownership, and a rapid shift toward EVs and energy diversification. In contrast, India is poised for 3–5% annual oil demand growth this decade, underpinned by rising per capita consumption, population growth, and rapid infrastructure expansion.
“India will remain the primary source of incremental global oil demand through 2030,” Moody’s analysts noted, adding that the country’s oil import dependence will increase as domestic production remains subdued.
According to India’s Ministry of Petroleum, crude consumption is already tracking 4.3% higher year-over-year in Q1 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects India’s oil demand will rise from 5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to over 6.5 million bpd by 2030.
Meanwhile, signs of a peak in Chinese demand have been mounting. Earlier this year, OilPrice.com reported that Chinese refiners were already scaling back crude imports—down nearly 600,000 bpd from last year—amid weak industrial activity and record EV adoption.
This eastward demand shift has major implications for long-term pricing, global refining strategy, and upstream investment. For exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, India is now the market to watch. For oil markets, the era of “China-as-demand-engine” is rapidly fading, with India more than ready to hold tight to its status as lead driver of oil demand growth.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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