The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the U.S. regular gasoline retail price to drop this year and next year, according to its latest short term energy outlook, which was released on May 6.
According to that STEO, the EIA sees the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaging $3.09 per gallon in 2025 and $3.07 per gallon in 2026. The EIA highlighted in the STEO that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaged $3.31 per gallon in 2024.
In its latest STEO the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will come in at $3.16 per gallon in the second quarter of this year, $3.12 per gallon in the third quarter, $2.99 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.96 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.16 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.17 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.96 per gallon in the fourth quarter of next year.
In its previous STEO, which was released back in April, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would average $3.09 per gallon in 2025 and $3.11 per gallon in 2026. That STEO also pointed out that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaged $3.31 per gallon last year.
The EIA’s April STEO forecast that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would come in at $3.10 per gallon in the second quarter of 2025, $3.14 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.01 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.99 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.21 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.22 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.00 per gallon in the fourth quarter of next year.
“We expect gasoline prices across the United States will average $3.14 per gallon over 2Q25 and 3Q25, down nine percent from the same period last year,” the EIA noted in its latest STEO.
“Lower gasoline prices this summer mostly reflect lower crude oil prices,” the EIA added.
EIA Gasoline Fuel Update
In its latest gasoline fuel update, which was released on May 13, the EIA showed that the U.S. regular gasoline price averaged $3.133 per gallon on April 28, $3.147 per gallon on May 5, and $3.120 per gallon on May 12. The May 12 price was down $0.488 from the year ago price, the EIA’s fuel update outlined.
Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest U.S. regular gasoline price as of May 12, at $4.224 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown to have the lowest U.S. regular gasoline price as of May 12, at $2.692 per gallon.
A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average U.S. regular gasoline price is $3.180 per gallon, as of May 14. Yesterday’s average was $3.157 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.154 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.184 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.611 per gallon, the site highlighted.
The highest recorded average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices site outlined.
What Do You Pay For in a Gallon of Gasoline?
The EIA’s latest gasoline fuel update, which pegged the regular gasoline price at $3.10 per gallon in March 2025, showed that 54 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 17 percent went towards taxes, 16 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, and 14 percent went towards refining costs.
According to an EIA gasoline fuel update released back in May 2024, which pegged the retail price of regular gasoline at $3.43 per gallon in March 2024, 56 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 19 percent went towards refining costs, 15 percent went towards taxes, and 10 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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