Britain could face emerging risks to natural gas supply in the 2030s as a freefall in domestic production makes it increasingly dependent on imports, the National Energy System Operator (NESO) has warned in a new report.
NESO’s first annual Gas Security of Supply Assessment focused on winters between 2030 and 2036 under its obligation to assess gas supply security in its new responsibility as Great Britain’s Gas System Planner.
The assessment found that under seasonal normal weather conditions, gas supply would be sufficient to meet demand.
Supply currently comes from the UK Continental Shelf and from pipeline imports from Norway, LNG imports and pipeline imports from Europe, gas storage, and biomethane.
The relative contribution of these sources will evolve over time, primarily driven by the long-term natural decline of UKCS production – a trend evident since the early 2000s, NESO said.
Normal conditions wouldn’t threaten supply, but “when testing against a range of 1-in-20-year peak demand scenarios for 2030/31 to 2035/36, the analysis identifies an emerging risk to GB gas supply security,” the energy system operator said.
“In scenarios where all gas supply and network infrastructure are operational (intact), this risk is evident only where decarbonisation is slowest – where peak gas demand is expected to remain close to, or even exceed, current expectations,” NESO said.
“However, in the unlikely event of the loss of the single largest piece of gas infrastructure, gas supply falls short of demand expectations for all pathways in 2030/31.”
NESO’s report pointed out that “a combination of measures will likely be required to mitigate emerging security of supply risks,” and these mitigation options include reducing peak day gas demand through decarbonization, maximizing peak day supply from existing infrastructure, and developing new gas supply infrastructure.
Oil and gas production in the UK North Sea has been falling since the 2000s and the UK’s pledge to ban new projects and refusal to amend the punitive tax regime doesn’t make it easier for operators to reverse the decline.
“No new exploration wells have been drilled in 2025 and domestic oil and gas production has fallen by 40% in the last five years and is on course to halve again by 2030,” industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) said, commenting on the autumn budget that doesn’t address calls for reforms of the Energy Profits Levy (EPL), the so-called windfall tax.
“This is an accelerated decline driven by government policy, not geology,” OEUK noted.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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