In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team ahead of the release of this week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly petroleum status report, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending January 16.
“This follows a 3.4 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing somewhat tighter relative to our expectations, alongside a large gasoline build,” the strategists, including Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor, said in the Macquarie report.
“For the week ending 1/16, from refineries, we look for a meaningful reduction in crude runs (-0.4 million barrels per day); we see some potential for continued outperformance here as turnarounds have been slow to materialize,” the strategists added.
“Among net imports, we model a moderate reduction, with exports (-0.1 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.5 million barrels per day) lower on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance, “as does timing of turnarounds”.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a modest nominal decrease (-0.2 MBD),” the strategists said in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a larger increase (+0.8 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks for the week ending 1/16,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report that, “among products”, they “again look for another healthy build led by gasoline (+5.0 million barrels), with distillate (+1.0 million barrels) and jet stocks (+0.9 million barrels) also modestly higher”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.8 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16,” the Macquarie strategists noted.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released later today. It will include data for the week ending January 16.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on January 14 and included data for the week ending January 9, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 3.4 million barrels from the week ending January 2 to the week ending January 9.
According to this EIA report, crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 422.4 million barrels on January 9, 419.1 million barrels on January 2, and 412.7 million barrels on January 10, 2025. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 413.7 million barrels on January 9, 413.5 million barrels on January 2, and 394.3 million barrels on January 10, 2025, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.713 billion barrels on January 9, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were up 6.4 million barrels week on week and up 88.1 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on January 12 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 5.0 million barrels for the week ending January 9.
“This follows a 3.8 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing relatively close to our expectations,” the Macquarie strategists said in that report.
The EIA’s weekly petroleum status report states that it “provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products”. In this report, the EIA describes itself as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.
On its site, Macquarie describes itself as “a global financial services group operating in asset management, retail and business banking, wealth management, as well as advisory, and risk and capital solutions across debt, equity, financial markets and commodities”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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