Russia’s oil product exports dropped in June to the lowest in eight months amid extended work at refineries supplying Baltic ports, coupled with efforts to stabilize domestic fuel supplies before the upcoming seasonal surge in agricultural and holiday consumption.
Seaborne shipments of refined fuels totaled 2 million barrels a day in the first 20 days in June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s the lowest monthly tally since October and an 8% decline compared to both the previous month and last year in June. Flows from Baltic ports recorded the sharpest drop of more than 15% from May levels.
Russian seaborne oil flows are closely watched by the market to assess its production since official data has been classified. Crude outflows slid to the lowest since mid-April led by maintenance-related disruptions at a key Pacific port, compounded by a decline from the Baltic.
Oil processing rates have ramped-up this month as refineries wrap up seasonal maintenance. However, volumes available for export may be curbed by government initiatives to boost stockpiles to meet growing fuel demand from agricultural activity and summer travel.
Diesel exports were largely flat, while flows of refinery feedstocks like vacuum gasoil, used by secondary units like the fluid catalytic crackers, jumped this month. Outflows of all other major fuels slumped. Most of the decline in fuel flows were concentrated in the Baltic ports, indicating extended turnarounds at refineries that usually supply these terminals.
“Drone strikes earlier this year could have extended the turnaround time for both primary and secondary units,” according to Mick Strautmann, a market analyst at Vortexa. The spike in vacuum gasoil flows out of Ust-Luga in the Baltic, a feedstock used in secondary units like the fluid catalytic cracking units, suggests more serious disruptions at downstream units in the region, he said.
Here’s a breakdown of shipments from Russian ports through 1-20 June:
Diesel and gasoil exports edged up by 1% from the previous month to about 1 million barrels a day. A higher share of these exports are coming from Novorossiysk port in Black Sea, and much of this additional supply is headed to Turkey, said Strautmann.
A tanker laden with diesel from Primorsk, switched its course away from Brazil toward the Mediterranean in recent days.
Naphtha shipments dropped 15% to 322,000 barrels a day, the lowest this year. Exports to Africa declined, while flows to Asia were largely unchanged.
Fuel oil is the main drag on refined product export volumes this month. Flows declined by 16% to 537,000 barrels a day. However, shipments to Africa have surged, notably to Egypt. Refinery feedstock exports jumped 84% to 132,000 barrels a day, the highest since November.
Gasoline and blending component exports were less than 200 barrels a day and jet fuel flows hit a nine month low of just 15,000 barrels a day, signaling initiatives to shore up internal fuel supplies.
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