The UN aviation organisation has been captured by the industry, a report has concluded, leading to the urgent action required to tackle the sector’s high carbon emissions being blocked.
Industry delegates outnumbered climate experts by 14 to one at the recent “environmental protection” meeting of the UN International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the report found. The ICAO is the forum where nations agree the rules governing international aviation.
The analysis, by the thinktank InfluenceMap, concluded that ICAO policies to tackle the climate crisis were weak and reflected the self-interest of powerful members of the aviation industry, such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents 350 airlines. ICAO’s assembly, its highest-level summit, held every three years, starts on Tuesday.
The report also criticises a lack of transparency compared with other UN organisations, with the meetings where climate policies are developed being closed to the media and requiring delegates to sign non-disclosure agreements. This gives an advantage to groups opposing serious climate action that could otherwise be held publicly accountable, the analysts said.
The result of this corporate capture, the report says, is that climate policy for international aviation is judged “critically insufficient” by the independent Climate Action Tracker analysts, aligned with over 4C of global heating.
“Our report lays out a clear case of corporate capture,” said Lucca Ewbank, the transport manager at InfluenceMap. “Industry lobbyists continue to dominate decision-making processes at ICAO, relying on closed-door meetings to cement their influence. In order for the aviation sector to meet the existential challenge of climate change, ICAO needs a hard course correction.”
Flying causes more climate-heating pollution than any other form of transport per mile and is dominated by rich passengers, with 1% of the world’s population responsible for 50% of aviation emissions. Despite the urgent need for cuts in carbon pollution, ICAO forecasts a doubling of passenger numbers by 2042 and Climate Action Tracker predicts that without strong action, aviation’s carbon dioxide emissions could double or even triple by 2050.
The industry argues that more efficient aircraft, sustainable fuels and ICAO’s primary carbon policy, an offsetting scheme, can control carbon emissions.
But independent experts say the feasible scale of such measures is extremely unlikely to compensate for such huge growth in air traffic. For example, the “unambitious and problematic” offsetting scheme, called Corsia, has yet to require any airline to use a carbon credit, and fuel-efficiency improvements are stalling. The experts say aviation growth must be curbed if climate targets are to be met.
Ewbank said: “Airlines and industry associations are ignoring the warning lights and prioritising industry interests over essential emissions cuts, with only a weak offsetting policy and non-binding targets to show for years of deliberation.”
A spokesperson for ICAO said it was committed to increasing transparency as part of a “cultural transformation” launched in 2022. “The ICAO assembly next week will be reviewing progress and determining the next steps. The resolutions passed by the assembly will also support the implementation of ICAO’s long-term strategic plan for 2050, which envisions zero fatalities and net zero carbon emissions. The review of the outcomes and the resulting decisions by the ICAO council and assembly are fully open and broadcast to all.”
The spokesperson said developing robust technical standards required detailed input from industry experts and may involve commercially sensitive information that is subject to confidentiality rules. “ICAO strongly urges advocacy by all stakeholders, particularly at a time when air transport is facing its most significant opportunities and challenges,” he said.
The InfluenceMap report found that at ICAO’s environmental negotiations in February, 72 delegates (31% of the total) represented industry trade associations, including employees of the fossil fuel companies ExxonMobil and Chevron and the aircraft makers Airbus and Boeing. In contrast, just five delegates (2%) represented green groups.
Most of the rest of the delegates (57%) represented countries, although eight of these were also employees of aviation or fossil fuel companies. One of the trade associations, representing aircraft manufacturers, had 41 delegates, more than any national delegation.
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The dominance of industry interests has grown since the last major environmental meeting in 2022, at which aviation industry delegates outnumbered those from green groups by 10 to one.
ICAO and the international aviation industry have set themselves a target of net zero emissions by 2050. But the International Energy Agency found in January that aviation was “not on track” to meet this goal.
The InfluenceMap report notes that industry support for the 2050 target appears to be weakening, with the IATA head, Willie Walsh, recently calling for it to be “re-evaluated”, citing concern among airlines about rising costs. The industry failed to meet all but one of 50 of its own climate targets in the past two decades, a 2022 report found. IATA did not respond to requests for comment.
Aviation fuel is generally untaxed and new levies to fund climate action are being discussed at high levels. However, in April ICAO called on member states to lobby the UN climate organisation and other bodies to oppose such proposals.
ICAO has been widely criticised over its climate policies, even by industry insiders. A group of aviation professionals said in May that the industry was “failing dramatically” in its efforts to tackle its role in the climate crisis.
ICAO’s offsetting scheme is also widely criticised. Marte van der Graaf, of the thinktank and campaign group Transport & Environment, said: “Corsia offsets don’t actually reduce emissions. They are often based on dubious ‘avoided deforestation’ schemes based on hypothetical predictions little better than astrology.” IATA warned on Wednesday that there was likely to be a “terrifying” shortfall of approved offsets after the voluntary phase of Corsia ends in 2027.
Ewbank said ICAO needed to “prioritise public interests, science-based policies and open negotiations, so that independent experts and civil society can come together with industry in good faith, and so that industry can begin to take real responsibility for the climate impact of the aviation sector”.
