OPEC oil production ticked up by 270,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the latest Reuters survey. The group’s total output hit 27.02 million bpd last month as members began unwinding voluntary cuts. But the real story isn’t what’s on paper—it’s what’s actually flowing.
Saudi Arabia accounted for 200,000 bpd of the increase, while the UAE added 100,000 bpd—both still technically pumping below their formal quotas. Iraq, under pressure for previous overproduction, actually dialed back output, helping partially offset the gains.
The rise comes ahead of a newly scheduled OPEC+ meeting on Saturday, July 5, where the group’s eight voluntary cutters are expected to approve another 411,000 bpd hike for August. If approved, that would bring the total scheduled increase for 2025 to 1.78 million bpd. But “scheduled” is doing a lot of work here—compliance has been patchy, and actual additions continue to underwhelm.
Kazakhstan, still refusing—or unable—to rein in foreign-led output, is the outlier, openly defying production targets while citing its lack of legal authority over international operators like Chevron. Iraq, by contrast, seems to be trying to play ball.
Meanwhile, investors remain skeptical. Between compensation cuts, under-compliance, and the political need to appear unified, the 411,000 bpd headline number rarely translates into reality. Traders are watching flows, not pledges.
It’s all happening against the backdrop of a 1% global production decline in 2024—the first since 2020—despite a demand climb to 103.84 million bpd. OPEC’s own stats show its exports slipped by 70,000 bpd last year, and most of its barrels—over 13 million bpd—still go to Asia.
In other words, while the production optics are bullish, the real volumes—and enforcement—remain the wildcard.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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