The cost of shipping Middle East crude to customers in Asia collapsed on Thursday, the latest sign of oil markets returning to normal after conflict eased in the world’s top petroleum-exporting region.
Charter rates slumped by 17% to 55.50 industry-standard Worldscale points, according to data from the Baltic Exchange in London. It works out at roughly $1.60 a barrel.
“Risk premiums have naturally faded,” said Fredrik Dybwad, an analyst at Fearnley Securities AS. “There is ample vessel availability, and considering normal seasonality, rates should naturally find a lower level.”
Shipping prices soared two weeks ago amid concern Iran might disrupt maritime traffic around Hormuz Strait, a vital waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas must pass. After almost two weeks of fighting between Iran and Israel that began on June 13, there’s since been a ceasefire, hitting oil prices and lowering the risks for ships that enter the region.
The Joint Maritime Information Center, a naval liaison with commercial shipping in the region, said Thursday that no hostilities had been reported in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 48 hours and that traffic had returned to normal levels. “A sustained period of inactivity and strengthening of the ceasefire agreement will stabilize maritime tension in the Arabian Gulf,” it said in a note.
“Now that the market has become sanguine about Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz, ships are running fluidly again, the premium gas been removed, and rates are correcting lower meaningfully,” said Jonathan Chappell, senior managing director at Evercore ISI.
The Worldscale system is designed to let owners and charterers quickly calculate the latest earnings and per-barrel costs on thousands of trade routes.
Vessels on the industry’s benchmark Saudi Arabia-to-China route are earning $35,281 a day, according to the Baltic Exchange. They were making almost $76,000 on Monday.
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