Crude oil prices were on course for a modest weekly gain today, buffeted by both headwind and tailwinds, including OPEC+ policy, U.S. job numbers, and anticipation of President Trump’s next move on tariffs.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $68.58 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $66.87 per barrel, both slightly down from Thursday’s close but on course to make a small weekly gain.
Earlier in the week, the U.S. Labor Department reported a nonfarm payroll increase of 147,000 for June, which was more than what analysts expected, with the rate of unemployment falling from 4.2% in May to 4.1%. These signs of a stronger-than-expected economy were bullish for oil but they were countered by expectations that OPEC+ will add another 411,000 barrels daily at its next meeting, scheduled for this Sunday.
These expectations have been weighing on oil prices since the start of the week, with analysts citing oversupply concerns for their bearish mood on oil. Yet the sentiment is not universal. Standard Chartered said earlier this week that the global market could easily absorb any additional oil supply from OPEC+ as demand remained robust while global inventories remain at the lowest in five years.
At the same time, OPEC itself reported that last year global oil production was notably lower than demand—despite all the warnings of oversupply. Production averaged 72.58 million barrels daily in 2024, the group said, while demand rose to 103.84 million barrels daily.
Among the other factors that pushed oil prices one way or another this week were the trade deal that the U.S. sealed with Vietnam, and that will see tariffs of 20% on Vietnamese imports into the U.S., along with the news that Iran has suspended its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Earlier on Friday, however, Reuters cited a statement by Iran’s foreign minister saying the country had not suspended cooperation with the IAEA and that it remained committed to nuclear non-proliferation.
Inventory reports from the U.S. as well as estimates of gasoline demand during peak driving season also affected prices—negatively because inventory reports featured unexpected builds while gasoline demand was lower than expected.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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