Despite Monday’s retreat, the uptrend remains intact with a higher-high, higher-low formation. Traders are eyeing technical support around the long-term 50% retracement at $64.21, followed by the 50-day moving average at $63.73 and the 200-day moving average at $63.09. A sustained move above the $66.42 peak could trigger a push toward a major resistance zone between $68.35 and $69.34.
Russia, Iran sanctions and China stockpiling add upside risk
While supply additions dominate headlines, traders remain cautious about geopolitical risks. Ukraine’s drone campaign has disrupted up to 25% of Russia’s refining capacity in recent weeks, and Russia has responded with a partial diesel export ban. Simultaneously, the United Nations has reinstated sanctions on Iran, raising concerns over potential supply constraints.
China’s continued crude stockpiling may also support the market. Reuters reports that China imported roughly 990,000 bpd above domestic needs through the first eight months of the year, suggesting ample buying capacity remains.
Saudi Aramco to raise Asia crude prices but hikes may be limited
Saudi Arabia is expected to raise November official selling prices (OSPs) for Asia by 20–40 cents per barrel across its crude grades, reflecting recent strength in Middle East benchmarks. However, rising supply and higher freight costs are expected to limit the scale of those increases. The cash Dubai premium recently hit a six-month high of $3.63 per barrel before easing on the Kurdistan export news.
