Conversely, a rebound above $63.30 could attract dip buyers, though any rally faces resistance at $64.40 and again at $66.18, which could be the trigger for a breakout toward $68.70.
OPEC+ signals shift toward regaining market share
The bearish tone in crude markets reflects rising expectations that OPEC+ may announce another output increase at its Sunday meeting. According to sources cited by Reuters, eight member nations are pushing for additional supply hikes starting in October. This follows the group’s decision earlier this year to raise production targets by 2.2 million barrels per day between April and September, along with a 300,000 bpd quota bump for the UAE.
PVM analyst Tamas Varga noted that a fresh production hike would mark a shift in OPEC+ strategy toward reclaiming lost market share rather than supporting prices. Despite aggressive output increases, Middle Eastern crude grades have remained among the strongest globally, giving producers like Saudi Arabia more confidence to open the taps.
U.S. data adds further pressure on crude
Domestic economic data is also weighing on oil sentiment. Job openings fell to a 10-month low in July, pointing to a softening labor market and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates this month. A dovish Fed could ease recession fears but also signals tepid demand growth.
Meanwhile, traders await official U.S. crude inventory data later Thursday. Preliminary figures from the American Petroleum Institute show a surprise 622,000-barrel build in crude stocks for the week ending August 29—suggesting demand may not be as strong as expected. Any confirmation from the Energy Information Administration could amplify selling pressure.
Bearish outlook as market tilts toward oversupply
With technicals breaking down, OPEC+ signaling higher output, and U.S. inventories rising, the weight of evidence leans bearish for crude oil in the near term. Unless buyers defend the $63.30 level and economic signals turn more supportive, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
