OPEC+ Supply and End of U.S. Driving Season Weigh on Sentiment
Fundamentally, we’ve got some push and pull. Prices took a hit Friday on worries about slowing demand, especially with the U.S. summer driving season winding down after Labor Day. But even with that, WTI’s up about 1% on the week—so there’s been some dip-buying under the hood.
Traders are also squaring up ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting. The group’s been quietly increasing output to claw back market share, which has started to weigh on the overall supply outlook. Add in the fact that Russia’s crude is still flowing—especially to India, which is brushing off U.S. pressure to cut ties—and that’s helping to cap upside momentum for now.
Traders Buying Dips, But Resistance Still in Control
Earlier in the week, crude caught a bounce after Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil export infrastructure, plus a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. inventories. That drawdown suggested some lingering strength in industrial and freight-related demand, even as the broader consumer fuel demand starts to cool.
But again, sellers are testing the nerves of buyers here. Bulls have had a hard time getting through that $64.56–$65.41 zone, and we’re seeing profit-taking near those levels. There’s also a trigger line up at $66.18—break above that, and it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see a run toward $69.69. That being said, such a move would need a real catalyst—maybe geopolitical, maybe a surprise from OPEC+.
More Consolidation Likely Unless Key Levels Break
So for now, the market looks content to continue to consolidate between $63.26 and $64.60. A clean break below $63.26 likely opens the door for a test of $61.12. On the upside, buyers need to chew through $64.56, $65.41, and $66.18 before any real breakout talk gets serious.
More likely than not, we stay rangebound heading into the long weekend, with traders eyeing next week’s OPEC+ decision and any surprise geopolitical headlines. Until then, we’re just working off some of the excess from earlier this week.
