A more pragmatic energy transition and a renewed push for upstream investment took centre stage at a panel discussion on “Upstream Transformation: Driving Strategic Re-engagement with Exploration Portfolios”, as industry leaders said oil and gas will remain critical to meeting future energy demand, especially in fast-growing economies such as India.
The discussion, which brought together senior leaders from ONGC, bp and ADNOC, reflected a shift in global energy narratives, with participants warning that prolonged underinvestment in upstream oil and gas is no longer sustainable amid rising demand, new consumption drivers such as data centres, and growing energy security concerns.
Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, a market intelligence organisation, said that global energy demand is expected to grow by around 3 per cent annually for the next 25 years, with India emerging as the epicentre of this growth as China’s demand plateaus.
“There is now a more realistic narrative around the energy transition. We will need all forms of energy, not just renewables, but also oil and gas, to meet growing demand,” she said.
She stressed that future upstream investments must focus on low-carbon, high-margin projects, including deepwater, frontier basins and selective onshore opportunities, to balance energy security with decarbonisation goals.
From an international oil company perspective, William Lin, EVP Gas and Low Carbon Energy, bp, said that the industry is becoming more grounded about the pace and cost of transition.
“There has been underinvestment for five to eight years, and the world has woken up to the fact that energy security is paramount. We need all forms of energy, and we need to respond with disciplined capital allocation,” he added.
Lin said that bp is refocusing on growing upstream value, not just volumes, with a strong emphasis on higher-margin barrels, gas, and technology-led efficiency. He also underlined gas’s critical role in supporting power demand driven by AI and data centres.
“Gas-fired power is going to grow. Low-carbon supply alone cannot meet that exponential demand,” he said.
Haitham Al Jenaibi of ADNOC reinforced the long-term demand outlook, citing urbanisation, aviation growth and digital infrastructure as structural drivers.
“On top of energy transition, there is energy addition, and that needs more attention,” he said, calling for sustained investment across oil, gas and low-carbon solutions.
A key outcome of the discussion was the emphasis on partnerships and technology, from mega seismic surveys and shared infrastructure to AI-led exploration, predictive maintenance and production optimisation. Panelists agreed that collaboration between NOCs and IOCs, backed by advanced technology, will be essential to unlock complex resources while keeping costs and emissions in check.
The panel struck a bullish but disciplined note on upstream investment. The industry’s challenge is no longer choosing between transition and hydrocarbons but ensuring adequate, affordable and secure energy supply while transitioning responsibly, with upstream oil and gas continuing to play a foundational role in that journey.
