Odds-On for USA to Strike Iran Before June

Prediction markets now put the probability of the U.S. striking Iran before June this year at 71 percent.

That’s what Erik Meyersson, Chief EM Strategist at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in a report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Friday.

“Brent crude futures rose above $70 per barrel yesterday (it now stands at $69.8), indicative of a substantial risk premium,” he noted.

In the report, Meyersson warned that “another war including a naval intervention may bring greater risks of an event in the Strait of Hormuz”.

“Given the limitations to [a] direct U.S. military strike, a likely scenario is that the U.S. seeks to start with a naval intervention to intercede Iran’s shadow fleet and sanctioned oil exports,” he said.

“This also implies a higher chance of a risk event involving the Strait of Hormuz than last year’s war,” he warned.

“The Polymarket estimate of the probability that Iran may attempt to close the Strait is 31 percent, compared to 24 percent on June 11th last year. The oil VIX index is at 55.4 percent, compared to 43.2 percent last year,” he added.

“Even the Brent oil price is now on par with the level prevailing just before the June war, despite starting from a lower baseline,” Meyersson continued.

“The Brent futures curve has seen a larger shift upwards relative to the period preceding last year’s war. This is the case for both the front-month and 12-year contract,” he went on to state.

In a Rystad Energy market update sent to Rigzone just before 3pm GMT time on January 29, Rystad noted that oil prices had “risen sharply to $71.50 per barrel over the past few hours, their highest level since late September 2025, driven by mounting market speculation of an imminent U.S. military strike on Iran”.

In that update, Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Analysis, said, “oil markets are rapidly repricing geopolitical risk as the probability of direct U.S. action against Iran rises”.

“The speed of the oil price reaction suggests markets see U.S. military action against Iran as a real, near-term risk,” he added.

“While weather disruptions play a role, the magnitude of the price move points to a renewed geopolitical risk premium,” Leon warned.

In a J.P. Morgan report sent to Rigzone on Thursday by Natasha Kaneva, the company’s head of global commodities strategy, J.P. Morgan analysts, including Kaneva, highlighted that gold “surged past $5,550/oz to a new all-time high, while oil climbed towards $70, a four-month peak, as escalating tensions over Iran injected fresh uncertainty into markets”.

The analysts warned in that report that “any potential strike or blockade of Iran would come at a particularly challenging time”.

“Historically, the first quarter is typically the weakest period of the year for global oil supply-demand balances, marked by seasonal demand softness and the largest inventory builds of the year,” the analysts added.

“However, this January proved to be anything but typical,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted that a “massive winter storm and freezing temperatures in parts of the U.S. took 1.85-1.9 million barrels per day of production offline at the peak on January 26, marking the most severe weather-related disruption in several years”.

“Amid the extreme cold, U.S. oil demand surged by 0.5 million barrels per day, primarily due to increased power generation and heating needs,” the analysts said.

“Combining supply losses and demand strength, net market tightening in the U.S. oil balance peaked at 2.4 million barrels per day at the start of the week,” they went on to highlight.

Rigzone has contacted the White House and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on the SEB report, the J.P. Morgan report, and the Rystad update. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com