Israel-Iran Attacks Extend to Fourth Day with No Deal in Sight

Open hostilities between Israel and Iran entered a fourth day on Monday with no sign of easing, stoking fears of a wider war in the oil-rich region.

Iran fired several waves of drones and missiles over the last 24 hours, while Israel hit the Islamic Republic’s capital, Tehran, killing another key military official.

Since Friday, 224 people have been killed in Iran, according to the government, which said most of the casualties were civilians. Iranian attacks left 14 people dead and about 400 injured, Israel’s emergency services said. 

Tensions between the two countries erupted into direct conflict on Friday, when Israel launched surprise attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites. Since then, its air campaign has underscored Israeli air superiority and exposed the constraints facing Tehran’s ability to respond effectively.

For Iran, the showdown poses a strategic dilemma. It can’t risk appearing weak, yet its retaliatory options are shrinking – and proxy forces it supports across the region have been largely deterred by Israeli action.

After having urged Iran to reach a nuclear deal at the onset of the Israeli attacks, US President Donald Trump on Sunday said Iran and Israel “should make a deal, and will make a deal.”

“We will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran!” he said on Truth Social. “Many calls and meetings now taking place.”

He also said, in later comments to reporters, that “but sometimes they have to fight it out.”

There was little else suggesting an imminent breakthrough.

“We are in an existential campaign,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said as he visited the site of a missile strike on the coastal city of Bat Yam on Sunday. “Iran will pay a very heavy price for deliberately murdering our citizens, women and children.” His defense minister said the “regime in Tehran” was now a target.

Israel’s military said it hit military sites in various parts of Iran and killed the intelligence chief and other key officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The tit-for-tat weighed on financial markets, with equities in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar dropping on Sunday. The Egyptian pound weakened about 1.8 percent to beyond 50 per dollar in local trades. Israeli stocks rose, led by defense company Elbit Systems Ltd.

Investor caution elsewhere was also on display as trading resumed Monday in Asia, though the magnitude of the moves outside of energy remained relatively contained.

Brent crude built on its surge from the end of last week, climbing as much as 5.5 percent in Asian trading on Monday before paring some of those gains. West Texas Intermediate was near $74. Stocks in Asia rose as investors shifted their focus to news closer to home following a weekend dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Energy Fears

Iran reported an explosion at one of its natural gas plants linked to the giant South Pars field on Saturday. While the country exports little gas and Israel appears not to have targeted its oil fields or crude-shipment facilities, the move risks pushing up global energy prices – which soared on Friday – even more.

The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency said multiple strikes on Iran’s uranium-conversion facility at Isfahan, south of Tehran, resulted in serious damage.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, told state television that “we will no longer cooperate with the agency as we did before.” 

According to Iran’s Fars news service, a key parliamentary committee said Tehran should no longer adhere to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the bedrock arms-control agreement that compels signatories to accept inspections.

For now, it’s unclear if the government will take such steps.

Worst Conflict

Arch-enemies Israel and Iran have long fought a shadow war. The Jewish state’s been accused of cyberattacks and assassinating Iranian scientists, while Tehran’s funded anti-Israel militias in the Middle East. 

Those tensions soared after Hamas, a Palestinian group backed by Iran, attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. That led to Israel and Iran firing missiles and drones on each other twice last year.

Still, this is their most serious conflict yet. Since the fighting began, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear and military sites using jets and drones, and killed several top commanders and atomic scientists. 

Israel said it was aiming to end Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb, which it sees as an existential threat. Tehran maintains its atomic program has purely civilian purposes.

The attacks on Iran’s defenses seem to have given Israel air superiority over the Islamic Republic, including its capital.

The Israeli military on Sunday urged Iranians to “immediately evacuate” areas near weapons-production facilities and “not return until further notice.”

Netanyahu said his military would “strike at every site and every target of the Ayatollah regime,” while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Israel will “pay a very heavy price.”

The conflict sent shockwaves through global markets last week, with investors buying haven assets such as gold.

Iran canceled its next round of nuclear talks with the US scheduled for Oman on Sunday. The same day, Trump reiterated that the US wasn’t involved in Israel’s attacks and said he could still get a nuclear deal with Iran.

He’s set to meet other leaders of the Group of Seven major economies in Canada and the conflict will be at the forefront of their talks. Israel is calling on Washington and European nations to help it attack Iran, arguing that such help is needed to stop Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.

While the US has helped defend Israel by intercepting missiles and drones, Trump has not yet indicated if the US will join in the strikes on Iran.

For all that Israel’s already damaged Iranian atomic sites and says it will continue to strike them, many Western analysts say it needs US help to destroy some key facilities located deep underground.

Middle Eastern leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin are voicing increasing concern that the conflict could spiral out of control. They have urged both sides to calm the situation quickly.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, speaking to local broadcaster ARD, urged regional states to talk with Iran, while Berlin continues engaging with Israel.

Germany, France and the UK are, he said from Qatar, ready to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program.

It’s unclear if Tehran is entertaining last-resort options such as attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which Middle Eastern states ship about a fifth of the world’s oil.

That type of action may draw the US, the world’s most powerful military, into the conflict, something Tehran has probably calculated it can’t afford, according to Bloomberg Economics analysts. That’s partly because the Iranian economy is already weak, with inflation at almost 40 percent, and public frustration with the government is high.