India’s natural gas consumption is likely to rise by close to 60 per cent by 2030 and more than double by 2040, on the back of rise in usage of the fuel as CNG in automobiles and for cooking and industrial purposes, according to a study by oil regulator PNGRB.
Consumption of natural gas, which is used to produce electricity, make fertilizer or turned into CNG for running automobiles and piped to household kitchens for cooking, is expected to rise from 187 million standard cubic metres per day in 2023-24 to 297 mmscmd by 2030 under ‘Good-to-Go’ scenario, the study by Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) said.
‘Good-to-Go’ scenario assumes moderate growth and developments based on current trends and commitments.
Consumption of natural gas is projected to rise to 496 mmscmd by 2040 under the same scenario.
Under the ‘Good to Best’ scenario that considers accelerated progress, favourable policy implementation, and enhanced investments leading to higher-than expected growth, consumption could rise to 365 mmscmd by 2030 and 630 mmscmd by 2040.
“India’s energy demand is expected to keep growing. Natural gas being a convenient, clean and cheap (alternative) with respect to other fossil fuels is likely to grow,” it said.
In both scenarios, city gas distribution (comprising selling CNG to automobiles and piping the fuel to household kitchens and industries) will bring the anchor demand to — 50 mmscmd out of 110 mmscmd incremental demand by 2030 and 129 mmscmd out of 198 mmscmd incremental demand between 2030 and 2040 under the ‘Good to Go’ scenario.
The government is aiming to raise the share of natural gas in the country’s primary energy basket to 15 per cent by 2030, from the current 7 per cent. Gas is being considered as the bridge fuel, as the country transitions away from polluting fossil fuels to clean energy to achieve its net zero emission target by 2070.
City gas sector consumed almost 37 mmscmd out of 187 mmscmd in 2023-24. Fertilizer was the biggest consumer in the year at 58 mmscmd. Power sector consumed 25.2 mmscmd and refineries 22 mmscmd.
City gas distribution (CGD) will overtake fertilizer to become the biggest consumer of gas by 2030, accounting for over 87 mmscmd out of total projected consumption of 297 mmscmd. With no new fertilizer plant coming up soon, the sector will see consumption rise to 65.3 mmscmd by 2030 and 72.9 mmscmd by 2040.
Power sector consumption too would inch up to 35.7 mmscmd in 2030 and 43.5 mmscmd in 2040.
“CGD is set to be the largest natural gas demand driver by 2030, it will account for 29 per cent of total consumption in 2030, and 44 per cent of total consumption in 2040,” the study said.
Consumption of gas by refineries and petrochemical complexes is also expected to nearly double to 43.3 mmscmd by 2030, from the current 22 mmscmd, helped by a growing focus on petrochemical integration. While growth in gas-based power generation and fertiliser usage is expected to be moderate.
India meets half of its gas demand through imports. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are projected to grow as demand rises.
“LNG as a long-haul transportation fuel could be a game changer, with the potential to play a pivotal role in replacing diesel. LNG trucking is projected to gain momentum post 2030, with the potential to emulate China’s success in reducing diesel dependency,” the study said.
“India’s LNG imports are set to more than double by 2030, driven by increasing demand and relatively slower domestic production growth.”
As demand is expected to multiply significantly by 2030 and 2040, dependence on LNG will increase exponentially to bridge the demand-supply gap. With the expected increase in global LNG availability, there is a significant opportunity for long-term supply, leading to structurally lower prices.>
