New Delhi: India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil and significantly increase purchases from the US and potentially Venezuela, US President Donald Trump said on Monday, while announcing a trade deal with India on social media.
The Indian side has yet to confirm whether domestic refiners would completely halt Russian imports. If they do, it will trigger a major reshuffle in global oil trade flows. While the global oil market is currently well-supplied and replacement barrels are available, the transition may take time. Any short-term scramble for alternatives could push prices higher.
Over the past few years, Russia has been India’s largest crude oil supplier-far exceeding combined supplies from the US and Venezuela. Russia supplied an average of 1.7 million barrels per day of crude to India in 2025, compared with 318,000 barrels per day from the US, according to shipping data from Kpler. India has not received any Venezuelan crude since May 2025. In 2024, Indian refiners imported an average of about 70,000 barrels per day from Venezuela.
Russian barrels dominate Indian imports largely due to deep discounts. Russian supplies fell by about 30 per cent in January from the 2025 average following US sanctions on top Russian oil exporters Rosneft and Lukoil. Indian refiners primarily process mid-sulphur Russian grades, while US exports are mostly light crude and Venezuelan supplies are high-sulphur grades.
Although the US is the world’s largest crude producer, the long distance to India weighs on its economics. US crude becomes competitive only when prices are low enough to offset high freight costs.
Venezuela, by contrast, is a relatively small producer, pumping around 900,000 barrels per day-about 1 per cent of global supply. Before the capture of President Nicolas Maduro by the US last month, Venezuela exported roughly 765,000 barrels a day, of which nearly 76 per cent went to China and about 17 per cent to the US.
Renewed access to Venezuelan crude would benefit Reliance Industries the most, given its position as the largest and most consistent processor of crude from the Latin American country. State-run refiners such as Indian Oil, BPCL, HPCL and MRPL have also shown interest of late in Venezuelan crude. The Venezuelan supplies, however, are limited and unlikely to rise quickly.
