In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on January 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel retail price will drop in 2026.
According to its latest STEO, the EIA sees the diesel price averaging $3.43 per gallon in 2026. In 2025, the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel retail price came in at $3.66 per gallon, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in the STEO projected that the U.S. diesel price will average $3.50 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.40 per gallon in the second quarter, and $3.41 per gallon across the third and fourth quarters of this year. The STEO showed that, in 2025, the U.S. diesel price came in at $3.63 per gallon in the first quarter, $3.55 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.76 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.70 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
In its latest diesel fuel update, which was released on January 27, the EIA showed a rising trend in the average U.S. on highway diesel fuel price.
According to this fuel update, the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.459 per gallon on January 12, $3.530 per gallon on January 19, and $3.624 per gallon on January 26. The January 26 price was $0.035 per gallon lower than the year ago price, however, the EIA fuel update showed.
Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price as of January 26, at $4.301 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown in the update to have the lowest U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price as of January 26, at $3.325 per gallon.
A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.
AAA, GasBuddy
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average diesel price in the U.S. is $3.598 per gallon, as of January 28. Yesterday’s average was $3.593 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.531 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.565 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.674 per gallon, the site showed.
The highest recorded average price for diesel in the U.S. was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.816 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices website pointed out.
In a blog posted on the GasBuddy website on January 26, GasBuddy noted that the national average price of diesel “rose 7.8 cents in the last week and stands at $3.543 per gallon”.
“The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.69 per gallon, up 30 cents from last week, followed by $3.49, $3.39, $3.29, and $3.19, rounding out the top five most common prices,” GasBuddy stated in the blog post.
“The median U.S. diesel price is $3.49 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week and about 5 cents lower than the national average,” it added.
What Do You Pay For?
The EIA’s latest fuel update, which pegged the diesel retail price at $3.82 per gallon in November 2025, showed that 38 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 27 percent went towards refining costs, 19 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, and 16 percent went towards taxes.
A previous EIA fuel update released in January 2025, which pegged the diesel price at $3.52 per gallon in November 2024, showed that 48 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 21 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 17 percent went towards taxes, and 14 percent went towards refining costs.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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