World petroleum and other liquid fuels production will outweigh consumption by 2.83 million barrels per day in 2026.
That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) January short term energy outlook (STEO), which projected that global petroleum and other liquid fuels production and consumption will average 107.65 million barrels per day and 104.82 million barrels per day, respectively, this year.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that production will average 106.93 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 107.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 107.92 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 108.24 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Another quarterly breakdown in the EIA’s January STEO forecast that consumption will come in at 103.36 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 104.86 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 105.66 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 105.38 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s latest STEO showed that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production outweighed consumption by 2.59 million barrels per day in 2025.
In this STEO, the EIA highlighted that output averaged 103.67 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 105.21 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 107.88 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 108.30 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The STEO showed that consumption came in at 101.96 million barrels per day in the first quarter of last year, 103.68 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 104.55 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 104.52 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Looking ahead to 2027 in its January STEO, the EIA projected that the glut will narrow to 2.09 million barrels per day.
In this STEO, the EIA forecast that global petroleum and other liquid fuels production and consumption will average 108.18 million barrels per day and 106.09 million barrels per day, respectively, next year.
“Although oil production continues to grow over the next two years, falling oil prices slow the rate of growth compared with 2025,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“Global liquid fuels production increased by an estimated 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025, and we expect it will grow by an average of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 and 0.5 million barrels per day in 2027,” it added.
“Global liquid fuels production growth in 2026 is driven by growth from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ production, primarily from countries in South America,” it continued.
“Global liquid fuels production growth comes almost entirely from non-OPEC+ countries in 2027 as OPEC+ targets are assumed to remain at 2026 levels and the group’s production levels are largely unchanged,” the EIA went on to state.
The EIA highlighted in its STEO that global liquid fuels consumption “increased by an estimated 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025” and pointed out that it is “forecast to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027”.
“Consumption growth rises next year as global economic activity picks up pace. Based on forecasts from Oxford Economics, our forecast assumes global GDP will grow by 3.1 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2027,” the EIA noted in its January STEO.
“We forecast liquids fuels consumption will grow by 1.1 million barrels per day in non-OECD countries in 2026 and another 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027, making up nearly all of global liquid fuels consumption growth,” it said.
“Most non-OECD growth is concentrated in Asia. We expect liquid fuels consumption in India will increase by almost 0.3 million barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027. We forecast total liquid fuels consumption in China increases by just over 0.2 million barrels per day in both 2026 and in 2027,” it added.
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