Fibonacci Support and Breakout Signal
Yesterday’s decline completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upswing, helping stabilize demand and setting up today’s breakout. A second daily close above the 20-Day moving average now looks likely, which would mark the second such close in four days—a constructive sign for the bulls. Sustained trade above this level strengthens the case for further upside attempts.
Near-Term Resistance Levels
Immediate resistance lies at this week’s $65.77 high, reinforced by an anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) around $65.49. Beyond that, the next significant test appears near the 50-Day moving average, currently at $66.43 and declining. It has converged with a falling downtrend line. This convergence raises the significance of the area as a potential reversal point. Should momentum carry further, the 200-Day moving average near $67.85 offers the next logical upside target.
Counter-Trend Rally Within Larger Downtrend
Despite recent strength, the current move still forms part of a counter-trend rally within a broader downtrend. Historically, such rallies often stall when encountering major moving averages or prior support levels that have turned into resistance. As such, traders should be alert for selling pressure near the 50-Day or 200-Day averages, where the risk of reversal remains elevated.
Weekly Signals Support Near-Term Strength
On a broader timeframe, crude oil triggered a weekly inside week bullish reversal after reclaiming the 20-Week moving average for the first time in four weeks. This development lends credibility to the short-term rally, suggesting that crude may continue higher in the near term even if resistance caps the upside.
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