China Oil Demand Will Peak Earlier Than Expected, IEA Says

China’s oil demand will stop growing earlier than expected, reinforcing the outlook for a global peak and prolonged supply surplus this decade, the International Energy Agency said.

The IEA slashed forecasts for Chinese consumption until 2030 by about 1 million barrels a day amid “extraordinary” domestic sales of electric vehicles. It predicts the nation’s demand – which has dominated world growth this century – will top out in 2027, and worldwide oil use two years after that.

While the Israel-Iran conflict has stirred concern over immediate energy stockpiles, “oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. The agency was created in the 1970s to advise major consumers on energy policy.

Crude prices surged the most in three years Friday as Israel launched airstrikes on OPEC member Iran, though the gains have since cooled as oil exports remain unaffected. US futures traded near $70 per barrel Monday, down 19% from last year’s peak, amid expectations of an impending surplus. 

China’s oil use will reach a maximum 16.9 million barrels a day by 2027, peaking roughly two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the IEA’s report. Besides the ascent of EVs, high-speed rail and trucks powered with natural gas will help displace crude oil.

China National Petroleum Corp., the country’s largest energy producer, predicted in December that peak demand may arrive as early as this year.

The IEA projects that global oil demand growth will slow to a “trickle” the next few years, with consumption at a maximum of 105.5 million barrels a day in 2029 – roughly in line with last year’s forecast. It would then decline slightly the following year.

With China fading, the anticipated worldwide demand growth – amounting to about 2.5 million barrels a day total by 2030 – will largely come from India and other emerging economies. Forecasts for US oil demand were bolstered by roughly the amount that China’s were cut as America cools on EVs.

As Beijing recedes from the center of oil demand, the US will diminish in importance to global supplies after its shale oil boom helped provide about 90 percent of growth during the past decade. Investment is slowing as crude prices falter.

“When we look at oil market trends over the past decade, we see a remarkable double act” in China and the US, Birol said. “But these dynamics are shifting.”

America’s output will nonetheless keep growing, complemented by Brazil, Canada and Guyana. About 5.1 million barrels of production capacity will be added globally this decade, double the increase in oil demand.

Many leading players in the energy industry expect oil use will prove more tenacious than the IEA anticipates. Vitol Group, known as the world’s biggest independent oil trader, and some Wall Street banks such as Bank of America Corp. have predicted that peak demand won’t arrive until after 2030.

Some of the IEA’s other forecasts, such as its projection of a decline in coal demand, have missed the mark.

At the extreme end of the spectrum, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries projects that oil demand will keep increasing until at least the middle of the century, though the cartel has backtracked on prior short-term forecasts that proved excessively bullish.

While the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia has in recent months started to ramp up the production halted during the past few years, the IEA sees limited need for those extra barrels as rivals expand.

“OPEC+ may struggle to regain substantial market share,” according to the report.

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