Oil prices crept higher on Tuesday, with Brent and WTI both climbing as traders weighed a messy mix of geopolitics, supply disruptions, and macro tailwinds that all pointed in the same direction: higher risk, higher prices.
Brent crude rose about 1.5% to just under $65 a barrel, while WTI pushed past $60, up roughly 1.7% on the day. Crude has been struggling to build momentum for a while, and this move suggests the market is starting to price in a bit more discomfort.
One catalyst was Kazakhstan, where Tengizchevroil temporarily halted production at the massive Tengiz and Korolev fields after power distribution issues. Tengiz is one of the world’s largest oil fields, and even a short outage tightens near-term supply through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
Geopolitics added to the price hike. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats against several European countries over Greenland have injected fresh uncertainty into global trade. While tariffs themselves do not immediately change oil balances, they raise the risk premium. That unease showed up in crude prices even as analysts downplayed any direct impact on physical supply.
Macro factors helped too. China reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth, offering reassurance that demand from the world’s top oil importer is not rolling over. At the same time, the U.S. dollar slid again, making crude cheaper for non-U.S. buyers and giving commodities broadly a lift.
Still, U.S. production remains strong, OPEC+ spare capacity still exists, and inventories are not flashing red. But taken together, outages, geopolitics, firmer economic data, and a weaker dollar were enough to push Brent and WTI higher and keep them there.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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