As India Energy Week (IEW) opens in Goa tomorrow, the country is in a rare energy sweet spot: oil supplies are ample, prices are affordable with downside risks, and LNG markets are headed for an unprecedented supply boom even as prices have begun to ease.
And, yet, the public narrative around energy remains one of perpetual turmoil. Headlines over the past year have been dominated by geopolitical anxiety – from wars to trade tensions to fears of supply disruption. That sense of unease appears to have seeped into policymaking as well, with officials often framing decisions around the need to ‘survive today’.
A closer look at the data tells a different story. Despite Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy and tariff obsessions, rising rivalry among major powers, and chronic geopolitical flashpoints, oil markets have been calm. Oil prices averaged $69 a barrel last year – and are widely expected to remain in the $50s this year.
This disconnect matters because low prices and abundant supply are precisely when difficult reforms are politically easiest. India has been here before: the 2014-16 oil price collapse gave the Modi government the space to deregulate diesel, introduce daily price revisions, reform gas pricing and revamp upstream licensing. Today’s market offers a similar opening.
While India rolled out some oil and gas exploration reforms last year, many have stalled. Year after year at IEW, energy policymakers have presented India as a large, fast-growing market with immense potential returns. Global oil and gas companies know that. They are waiting for resolution on a short list of hard constraints: state dominance that never truly recedes, fuel pricing freedom that exists only in calm periods, policy surprises – from windfall taxes to export curbs – and the promise of taxation reform for the sector.
This helps explain why IEW speeches increasingly feel stale. Success is often measured in footfall and exhibition space rather than decision relevance. The emphasis shifts to hurried MoUs and symbolic announcements to demonstrate momentum. At the last edition, GoI launched the 10th round of exploration licensing under Open Acreage Licensing Policy. But the round was announced even as the law governing it was still being amended. The necessary rules and a revised model contract were finalised only much later, forcing repeated deadline extensions. The bid round is still open, and its outcome remains uncertain.
Such premature signalling is counterproductive. It creates the appearance of urgency without substance and ultimately erodes credibility. Sketchy MoUs, in place of concrete partnerships or financial commitments, add little to the event’s standing.
That urgency, however, also reveals how much of India’s reform agenda remains unfinished. Parliament last year approved a major amendment to the oilfield law, promising fiscal stability, neutral arbitration and longer lease terms. These are meaningful steps and could improve India’s appeal to foreign explorers.
Even so, a major concern remains unresolved: dispute resolution. Companies have long demanded that the government accept arbitration awards instead of challenging them in Indian courts. Some disputes remain unresolved years after awards have been issued.
Global upstream capital is shrinking, gravitating toward low-cost, resource-rich regions. India, a relatively low-prospectivity and under-explored basin, cannot compete on geology. Its only lever is policy credibility.
Fuel retailing has been India’s strongest draw for foreign investors. Yet, reforms launched a decade ago have quietly been reversed, with pump prices effectively frozen for nearly 3 yrs. Refiners are earning well today, but the risk is evident: a regime that permits profits now can just as easily impose losses later.
Scrapping of BPCL’s divestment has reinforced perceptions of enduring state dominance. Consumers continue to pay petrol and diesel prices well above international levels, creating systemic distortions. CNG prices remain high because they are benchmarked to petrol. Meanwhile, high LNG prices are driving industry back to cheaper liquid fuels. Nearly a decade after India set a target of raising gas’ share in the energy mix to 15% by 2030, it remains stuck at around 6%.
Reforms that could change this – bringing gas under GST, unbundling transport and marketing, creating an independent system operator, and curbing extended monopolies in city gas distribution – remain pending. Without them, underutilised LNG terminals risk becoming stranded assets.
Against this backdrop, louder salesmanship at IEW will not move capital. India does not need a hard sell. It needs policy maturity, stability and credibility. IEW will matter not for claimed momentum, but when reform advances and unresolved issues are confronted.
