Australia could reduce its reliance on foreign fuel by more than 1bn litres a year if we replaced 1m petrol-fuelled cars with electric vehicles, as experts say boosting EV adoption is part of securing the nation’s long-term economic security.
Hussein Dia, a professor of transport technology and sustainability at the Swinburne University of Technology, said electric vehicles can play a meaningful role in improving Australia’s energy sovereignty, as well as contributing to the national net zero emissions goal.
“Each EV replacing that vehicle effectively eliminates that fuel demand and instead shifts energy consumption to electricity, which is largely produced domestically,” Dia said.
“That reduces exposure to global oil price shocks and improves the resilience of the transport system. We don’t want to experience the same thing every few years.”
A typical petrol car travelling 15,000km a year might consume roughly 1,150 litres of fuel, which means “even moderate EV penetration can make a noticeable difference”, Dia said.
Replacing 1m internal combustion engine cars with electric vehicles will not happen quickly. There are only about 420,000 EVs on the road today in a national fleet of around 20m cars, so roughly 2%.
Diesel and petrol cars burn through about 25bn litres of fuel a year, so replacing half of all vehicles with electric versions would slash annual consumption by about 12bn litres.
Dia emphasised that these were illustrative examples of the important role greater adoption of EV can play in making the nation more resilient to future energy shocks.
“These are big asks, but I think if there is a will, then I think it is doable,” Dia said.
The US-Israel war on Iran has triggered a global energy shock which has pushed unleaded petrol prices in Australia’s major east coast cities to $2.30 a litre, or 30-40 cents higher in just two weeks, according to MotorMouth.
With diesel prices pushing towards $2.65 a litre or even higher in regional areas, Alison Reeve, the director of the Grattan Institute’s energy and climate change program, said this year’s energy crisis could trigger a major shift in how Australians and policymakers view electric vehicles.
New figures from the Australian Automobile Association showed petrol and diesel cars accounted for a record low two in three vehicle sales through the final three months of last year, down from 70% in the September quarter.
Petrol prices in the major east coast cities were up 15-20% since the start of the month.
A study covering Scandinavian nations found that a 1% increase in petrol prices was associated with an average 0.85% increase in EV sales, and that the pace of EV adoption was far more sensitive to petrol prices than electricity costs.
Matt Kean, the chair of the Climate Change Authority, said the CCA had advised that the electrification of transport would reduce emissions and Australians’ exposure to global oil prices.
“Events are making that advice seem more prescient by the day,” Kean said.
“March could see a record month for EV sales and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that momentum maintained as the shockwaves from the Middle East won’t be easily forgotten by motorists.”
In this context, talk of the government potentially scaling back electric vehicle incentives in the upcoming budget came at the worst time, Reeve said.
“We want to respond to the problem in a way that we don’t have the same problem in the future,” she said.
“You can be pretty sure there will be some geopolitical shock in the next few years, and they always affect oil and petrol prices.”
