War Creating Most Severe Energy Disruption Since 1970s

The escalating war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is creating the most severe disruption to global energy markets since the 1970s, GlobalData said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Wednesday.

“The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz … pushed oil prices briefly above $110 per barrel within days, while the shock is spreading to shipping, aviation, and trade, raising global recession and inflation risks,” GlobalData stated.

“The operational profile of the war is widening beyond direct military targets and is now materially impacting commercial activity,” the company added.

In the statement, GlobalData noted that energy and maritime logistics are driving the immediate economic shock.

“The most immediate macroeconomic impact is being transmitted through energy supply and maritime shipping,” the company said.

“The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to most traffic after Iranian threats and tanker attacks, leaving nearly 200 vessels stranded,” it added.

“Markets have repriced rapidly: oil … jumped from roughly $70 to above $110 per barrel in days, while Asian LNG spot prices … more than doubled,” it continued.

GlobalData went on to warn that higher fuel costs are feeding directly into transportation and distribution, noting that U.S. diesel reached a “two-year high of $4.04 per gallon, raising the probability of renewed inflation pressure across multiple economies”.

In the statement, Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Companies and Economic Research at GlobalData, highlighted that “corporate disruption is already severe across several sectors”.

“Qatar Energy and several Gulf refineries have suspended production or declared force majeure due to direct strikes and logistical blockades,” Mundada added.

“Major shipping groups such as Maersk have halted Gulf operations, with many vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and adding 10-15 days to journeys alongside sharply higher fuel burn,” the GlobalData representative continued.

“Aviation has also been hit hard, with airlines including Emirates grounding thousands of flights due to airspace closures in the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, triggering immediate losses for airlines and downstream tourism economies,” Mundada went on to state.

GlobalData also stated that risk pricing is intensifying the shock.

“War risk insurance premiums for vessels have reportedly surged from around 0.05 percent to more than 0.5 percent of ship value, rendering some routes uneconomical and further tightening available shipping capacity for both energy and container trade,” GlobalData noted.

“Equity markets have turned volatile; early in the conflict, the Dow Jones fell more than 400 points in a single session (March 2, 2026), reflecting investor concern over margin pressure, input-cost inflation, and broader geopolitical spillover,” the company added.

In the statement, Mundada warned that, “if the war continues beyond two to three months, the probability of a global recession and more entrenched inflation pressures rises materially, elevating stagflation risk across multiple regions”.

Jaison Davis, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, warned in a statement sent to Rigzone on March 9 that oil markets “will remain acutely sensitive to developments in the Gulf region”.

“Pricing dynamics are increasingly shaped by security conditions and the resilience of export routes through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

“Even with short-term stabilization in shipping, any lingering disruption to production, infrastructure, or tanker traffic risks sustaining elevated volatility, as well as renewed inflationary pressures for oil importing countries,” he continued.

In a market comment sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Aaron Hill, Chief Market Analyst at FP Markets, highlighted that oil prices “have continued to oscillate between gains and losses”.

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop noted in a SEB report sent to Rigzone today that the Brent spot price is trading $22 per barrel above the “neutral price” of $68 per barrel. 

“The Brent 1M price is trading at $90 per barrel this morning and $22 per barrel above the ‘neutral price’ in an expression of risk, stress and disruption of oil logistics as the Persian Gulf is closed,” he said.

“But the market is pricing Brent Y2027 at $71.6 per barrel and a premium of only $3.6 per barrel above the neutral price – implicitly assuming that the oil market will be normal in 2027 with normal inventories and normal supply,” he added.

The estimated value of open interest in energy markets increased by 11 percent week on week to $830 billion, according to a report from J.P. Morgan, which was sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.

“This was primarily driven by a steep increase in prices across the complex due to the military escalation in the Middle East, which more than offset net contract‑based outflows of $54 billion,” J.P. Morgan analysts stated in that report.

“The estimated value of open interest in natural gas markets increased by $32.8 billion over the week. This was driven by elevated prices across European, Asian and U.S. benchmarks, offsetting net contract-based outflows of $8 billion,” they added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com