In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Friday, SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop and SEB commodities analyst Ole R. Hvalbye highlighted that the oil market is “nervous for the coming weekend”.
“Brent crude traded in a large range of $69.16-72.61 per barrel along with optimism and pessimism over the ongoing Iranian nuclear negotiations in Geneva yesterday,” the analysts said in the report.
“In the end it closed virtually unchanged at $70.75 per barrel (-0.1 percent). Brent crude is up one percent to $71.4 per barrel this morning as the market is getting nervous for what might happen during the weekend,” they added.
In the report, the analysts outlined four oil price scenarios, flagging prices as low as $55 per barrel and as high as $150 per barrel.
Under the first scenario, U.S. President Donald Trump is characterized as a “deal/peace maker”.
“The negotiations are successful. A nuclear deal is signed. Iranian oil flows unhindered into the global market,” the analysts projected under this scenario.
“Kushner (Trump’s son in law) and Witkoff (Trump’s previous business partner) inks a range of profitable business deals with Iran. Capital is flowing into Iran. Production rises. The Brent crude oil price quickly falls to below $60 per barrel,” they added.
“Depending on OPEC+ control and management the oil price averages $55-64 per barrel for 2026. Republicans perform favorably in November elections,” they continued.
Under the second scenario, the SEB analysts theorize Trump “wiggles out” and the “situation fades with no deal and now war”.
“Brent falls back towards the $60 per barrel line. OPEC+ controls the market through the year and Brent averages $64 per barrel,” they added.
Under the third scenario, the SEB analysts flag a “contained attack”.
“U.S./Israel attacks Iran. Limited Iranian retaliation as last year: Brent spikes to $80-90 per barrel, but then quickly fall back as there is no real loss of supply. Else much like 1). Brent averages close to $64 per barrel for 2026,” they added.
Under the fourth scenario, the SEB analysts warn of “chaos”.
“U.S./Israel attacks Iran and Iran retaliates forcefully. Extended situation. The most potent weapon Iran has against Trump is the oil price. Full focus on halting supply of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. Either fully or partially. Better with partially for longer than fully for shorter,” the SEB analysts warn.
“Market panics. No one knows how long it will last as it happens. Brent quickly spikes to $100-150 per barrel. It is not enough to scare Trump. Real infliction of damage is necessary,” they added.
“The situation needs to be extended over several months maybe even all the way to November with an average oil price of $80-100 per barrel in order to hurt Trump in the midterm elections via oil prices, via gasoline prices via his voters,” they continued.
In the report, the SEB analysts warned that “currently, it looks like scenario four may be the most likely scenario”.
“While the market and Trump may be betting on a mix of one, two and three with limited risk for four. Trump is probably very confident that he can avoid four. That is his experience from previous events,” they added.
Rigzone has contacted the White House, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on the SEB report. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
In a SEB report sent to Rigzone on Wednesday by the SEB team, Schieldrop noted that Brent was trading “sideways at $71 per barrel waiting for what’s to come”.
“It has traded close to sideways this week since it was lifted higher by escalating war risk at the end of last week,” Schieldrop warned.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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