In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team prior to the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly petroleum status report, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will increase week on week.
“We are forecasting U.S. crude inventories up 1.9 million barrels for the week ending January 30,” the strategists, including Walt Chancellor, said in the report.
“This follows a 2.3 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing tighter relative to our expectations,” they added.
“For this week’s stats, we see significant room for volatility due to winter storm impacts on oil production, refinery runs, and product demand,” they continued.
“In any event, for the week ending 1/30, from refineries, we look for another reduction in crude runs (-0.3 million barrels per day), with storm effects and turnaround timing adding noise to the picture,” they noted.
“Among net imports”, the strategists said in the report that they “model a large increase, with exports sharply lower (-1.0 million barrels per day) and imports sharply higher (+0.8 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis”.
The strategists warned that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance.
They went on to state in the report that, “from implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers)”, they “look for a large nominal reduction (-1.6 million barrels per day) following a strong print in the prior week and accounting for freeze impacts”.
“Notably, while visibility on the ultimate impact of last week’s freeze event remains limited, we believe oil production has largely recovered to this point. Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a smaller increase (+0.2 million barrels) in SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks for the week ending 1/30,” they added.
“Among products, we look for another meaningful gasoline build (+3.7 million barrels), with a small distillate draw (-0.4 million barrels) and jet stocks higher (+0.7 million barrels). We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.6 million barrels per day for the week ending January 30,” the strategists went on to state.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 2.3 million barrels from the week ending January 16 to the week ending January 23, the EIA highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on January 28 and included data for the week ending January 23.
According to this report, crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 423.8 million barrels on January 23, 426.0 million barrels on January 16, and 415.1 million barrels on January 24, 2025. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 415.0 million barrels on January 23, 414.5 million barrels on January 16, and 394.8 million barrels on January 24, 2025, the EIA report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.715 billion barrels on January 23, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 6.3 million barrels week on week and up 107.7 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team prior to the release of this EIA report, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 0.9 million barrels for the week ending January 23.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released later today. It will include data for the week ending January 30. The weekly petroleum status report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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