Russia says India hasn’t said it’s going to stop buying its oil

A day after President Donald Trump said India agreed to halt purchases of Russian oil as part of a new U.S.-India trade deal, the Kremlin said it has heard nothing from New Delhi to suggest those flows are stopping.

“We haven’t heard any statements from Delhi on this matter yet,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, in comments reported by news agency RIA Novosti.

“We respect bilateral U.S,-Indian relations,” Peskov told reporters. “But we attach no less importance to the development of an advanced strategic partnership between Russia and India.”

“This is the most important thing for us, and we intend to further develop our bilateral relations with Delhi,” he said.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a former oil minister, downplayed any potential loss of Indian custom, telling reporters Tuesday: “We’re only seeing public statements. We’ll see how the situation develops.”

“But overall, our energy resource is in demand; we see this often. Supply will always find demand, because the balance is maintained,” he said in comments reported by TASS.

Trump announced that a trade deal had been reached with India in a post on Truth Social on Monday, saying an agreement had been reached during a call with Modi.

“We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine,” Trump said, adding: “He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.”

Trump said the U.S. would cut the main tariff on India from 25% to 18%, and would remove an additional 25% penalty tariff it had imposed on New Delhi last summer in retaliation for its Russian oil purchases.

Modi confirmed the latest deal with the U.S. had been done, posting on X Monday that he was “delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%.” 

India is certainly seen to have curbed its Russian oil purchases as a result of Washington’s punitive 25% duty, but analysts are skeptical that the country, which became a top buyer of discounted Russian crude following the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, is about to completely end these purchases given its need for cheap oil, a desire to its foreign policy autonomy, and to maintain close geopolitical and defense ties with Russia.

“I have a hard time believing the government of India will make any Russian oil-related commitment explicit,” Evan A. Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in analysis Tuesday.

“After all, India has deep historical and sentimental ties to Russia that it will not simply ditch under American pressure,” he noted, adding: “Maintaining the symbolic hedge that it can purchase Russian oil if it so chooses speaks both to Indian foreign policy autonomy and to its ability to resist American coercion, both of which are important factors in India’s domestic politics.”

Feigenbaum noted that while there were signs suggesting that New Delhi had already been incrementally reducing its imports of Russian crude, publicly rebuking Russia was always a “nonstarter” for Modi who, he said, “can ill afford to humiliate one of India’s most important defense partners.”

Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, agreed that New Delhi would be reluctant to dump a trading partner with whom it has deepened relations in recent years. Still, India would also be keen to not scupper its rapprochement with the States after months of trade tensions.

“For India, the Russia question remains,” he said in emailed comments Tuesday.

“Even though it has and will change its oil import structure away from Russia, India would still want to keep relations steady. It will be a balancing act for sure as India navigates these two crucial relationships simultaneously,” he added.

Moodys Ratings agency said India was unlikely to turn away from Russian oil completely, given the potential economic impact of doing so, including increased manufacturing costs and higher consumer prices.

“Even though India has reduced its purchase of crude oil from Russia in recent months, it is unlikely to cease all purchases immediately which could be disruptive to India’s economic growth,” Moody’s Ratings agency commented Tuesday.

“A complete shift toward non-Russian oil could also tighten supply elsewhere, raise prices and pass through to higher inflation given that India is one of the world’s largest oil importers.”