The global oil industry will require $18.2 trillion in cumulative investments between 2025 and 2050 to meet rising demand and prevent market instability, Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of the Energy Studies Department at OPEC, said while presenting the OPEC World Oil Outlook at Indian Energy Week on Wednesday.
Breaking down the investment requirements across the value chain, Benyoucef said the upstream sector alone will need average annual investments of around $574 billion, while the downstream and midstream segments will require approximately $2 trillion and $1.3 trillion, respectively, over the outlook period.
“Sustained and timely investment across upstream, midstream and downstream sectors is essential,” Benyoucef said. “Any shortfall in these investments would risk undermining energy security and could lead to increased market volatility.”
On the supply side, OPEC expects non-OPEC liquids production to grow steadily in the medium term, supported by output increases from the United States, Brazil, Canada and other producers. However, this growth is not expected to last indefinitely.
“After 2030, non-OPEC liquids supply is projected to plateau at just under 60 million barrels per day,” Benyoucef noted, citing resource depletion and an eventual peak in US production as key limiting factors.
As a result, countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), which includes OPEC members and allied producers are expected to play an increasingly central role in balancing the market.
According to OPEC estimates, DoC liquids supply is projected to rise from 40.1 mbpd in 2024 to 64.1 mbpd by 2050, increasing their combined market share from 48 per cent to 52 per cent over the same period. “With demand continuing to grow, DoC producers will need to provide a larger share of global supply to ensure market stability,” Benyoucef said.
Global crude and condensate trade is also expected to expand significantly, increasing by more than 10 mbpd to reach around 47 mbpd by 2050, OPEC projects.
The Middle East will remain the world’s dominant export hub, while the Asia-Pacific region including India will further consolidate its position as the largest import destination. This shift reflects rising demand in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, alongside declining consumption in parts of the OECD.
OPEC’s outlook also presents two alternative scenarios highlighting uncertainty around future oil demand. In a technology-driven scenario, faster deployment of advanced technologies and higher energy efficiency lead to oil demand peaking around 2035 before declining to 106 mb/d by 2050.
In contrast, an equitable growth scenario, which prioritises energy access and development needs in emerging and developing economies, sees oil demand continuing to rise to 129 mbpd by mid-century.
“These scenarios illustrate the range of uncertainty, but across all cases, the need for adequate investment remains unchanged,” Benyoucef said.
Summing up OPEC’s core message, Benyoucef stressed the importance of realistic and balanced energy pathways that ensure emissions reduction while safeguarding energy security, affordability and access.
“The world does not face a choice between energy transition and energy security,” he said. “It needs both , and that requires continued investment in the oil sector alongside the expansion of low-carbon solutions.”
