The eye-popping amounts Big Tech is shelling out on artificial intelligence resembles shale’s golden age of spending before a price crash wiped out $2.6 trillion in equity, Carlyle Group Inc.’s Jeff Currie says.
Energy and technology are two of the most important pillars of the economy, leaving other key sectors including finance and health care “useless” without the other two, the veteran commodity market forecaster wrote in a research note Tuesday.
“The shale boom was arguably the most notorious ‘growth at all costs’ capex cycle in the modern era, where energy industry-wide capex reached 110-120% of cash flow at its peak,” Currie said. “So for technology spending to reach energy industry levels should raise a lot of questions.”
Much of the investment from tech companies is going toward chips and data centers to build up computing resources to support AI development. AI compute can be measured in dollars per hour, much like oil is traded in dollars per barrel, Currie wrote. Confidence in future AI computing prices stabilizing around the $1- to $2-per-hour range “echoes the same confidence that the US shale producers had in $100/bbl oil that drove their spending far above cash flow,” he wrote.
US oil producers were able to only keep drilling debt on their balance sheets during the early days of the shale boom, while entering into long-term contracts with special-purpose vehicles that would take on the burden for additional capex to build pipelines. That finance structure is reminiscent of the AI boom today, he said.
“Big Tech AI appears to be using the exact same playbook that the energy industry used as these arrangements clearly rhyme with today’s AI datacenter SPV arrangements,” Currie said. “We cannot forget about the land grab, or the ‘race for positioning’ as the oil patch called it, which mirrors the AI ‘land rush.’”
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