Despite the $10 per barrel decline in oil prices, TotalEnergies expects its earnings and cash flow to have increased in the third quarter from a year earlier, on the back of higher oil and gas production and an annual surge in refining margins.
TotalEnergies expects its oil and gas production for the third quarter 2025 at 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up by 4% year-on-year, the French supermajor said in a trading update on Wednesday, ahead of the full Q3 results to be published on October 30.
The output is above the annual and quarterly guidance of more than 3% and rose despite the planned turnaround at the Ichthys LNG project offshore Australia.
“Compared to second quarter 2025, Exploration & Production results and cash flow should outpace the E&P production growth of 4% thanks to the accretive impact of the new barrels,” TotalEnergies said.
Moreover, the downstream results and cash flow are expected to improve by $400 million to $600 million year-on-year, reflecting the rise in the refining margin in Europe. The margin jumped to $63 per ton from $15 per ton in the third quarter 2024, despite the turnarounds at the Antwerp and Port Arthur refineries.
As a result, “Despite a $10/b drop in oil price year-on-year, the results and cash flow from business segments should increase within a range of 0 to 5% thanks to the accretive hydrocarbon production growth and the improved results of the Downstream,” TotalEnergies said.
The French group isn’t the only supermajor expecting solid third-quarter results despite this year’s decline in oil prices.
Earlier this month, Shell said in a trading update that strong gas trading, higher upstream production and liquefaction volumes, and increased refining margins are expected to boost third-quarter earnings.
Shell said in its third quarter 2025 update note that trading and optimization in its Integrated Gas division is expected to be “significantly higher” for the third quarter compared to the second quarter. Marketing adjusted earnings, as well as trading in the chemicals and fuels divisions, are also set to be higher than in Q2, said the supermajor, which reports full Q3 earnings on October 30.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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