A sustained move under the 52-week moving average will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for a drive toward the swing bottom at $61.12, followed by a Fibonacci level at $60.26. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.
Overcoming the 52-week moving average will indicate the return of buyers. However, the subsequent rally could be a labored event with a pair of pivots at $64.56 and $65.41 providing resistance initially, followed by the swing top at $66.03. This top is a potential trigger point for a surge into $68.70.
Geopolitical Risks Offer Temporary Lift to Crude Prices
Friday’s price uptick was driven by reports that a Ukrainian drone attack had suspended crude loadings at one of Russia’s largest western ports. Analysts warned this could curtail Russian crude and refined product exports, injecting new volatility into the supply side. The market also remains alert to potential secondary sanctions or tariffs from the U.S. aimed at reducing Russian oil exports to India and China, the two largest buyers of Moscow’s seaborne crude.
However, geopolitical support was fleeting. Brent and WTI benchmarks fell sharply on Thursday, down 1.7% and 2% respectively, underscoring market skepticism toward price rallies that aren’t backed by tangible supply disruptions.
Bearish Macro Data Weighs on Demand Outlook
Traders shifted their focus late in the week to U.S. economic indicators, which cast a shadow over demand prospects. The Labor Department’s revised jobs data showed the economy had created 911,000 fewer jobs through March than previously estimated. At the same time, August’s Consumer Price Index jumped 0.4%, the largest increase since January.
This combination of slower job growth and sticky inflation is raising doubts about the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates in the near term—potentially stalling economic activity and curbing energy consumption.
