For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin tumbles as Markets React to the US Bombing and Iran’s Response
While legal limbo impacted XRP demand, bitcoin plunged below $100,000 for the first time since May 8. News of the US bombing Iran’s three main nuclear sites and Iran’s response triggered a flight to safety, impacting BTC appetite.
On June 22, Iran’s parliament reportedly approved closing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since 1972. If Iran’s Supreme National Security Council signs off, crude oil prices could spiral. Rising oil prices would likely fuel inflationary pressures, potentially ending the current sequence of rate cuts by key central banks that has bolstered the global economy.
The Kobeissi Letter discussed the potential impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz, stating:
“So, if inflation climbs 5% the Fed won’t be looking to cut rates like Trump wants. This would result in rate HIKES, cuts would no longer be a discussion.”
BTC Price Outlook: The Iran-Israel Conflict, Trade Headlines, and ETF Flows
BTC fell 1.17% on June 22, mirroring Saturday’s 1.17% loss, closing at $100,982. The near-term price trajectory hinges on several key factors, including the Iran-Israel war, trade headlines, and ETF flows.
Potential scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, legislation setbacks, US tariff hikes, and ETF outflows. A combination of these may send BTC toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), potentially exposing $90,000.
Bullish Scenario: De-escalation in the Middle East conflict, bipartisan support for the Bitcoin Act, easing trade friction, and ETF inflows. Under these scenarios, BTC could target its all-time high of $111,917.
