Why Is the Oil Price Rising?

Why is the oil price rising today?

That was the question Rigzone asked Brian Leisen, a Global Oil Analyst at RBC Capital Markets. In response, Leisen told Rigzone that “geopolitics are back in focus this week with Russia as well the OPEC meeting on Sunday”.

“You’ve also seen CTA flows push to max long on this last rally as the end of summer lull comes to a close,” Leisen added.

In another statement sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Mohammed Taha, Financial Analyst MH Markets, said oil prices “remain volatile, with Brent crude at $69.69 per barrel and WTI at $66.26, driven by geopolitical tensions, including Ukraine-Russia conflicts, and a weaker U.S. dollar due to President Trump’s Federal Reserve critiques and tariffs on Indian imports of Russian oil”.

Taha added in the statement that the International Energy Agency’s raised global oil supply forecast warns of potential oversupply, which the MH Markets representative said could pressure prices downward.

“Upcoming Core CPI Flash Estimate and ISM Manufacturing PMI releases will be critical, as strong data could signal robust economic activity and boost oil demand, while weaker figures may fuel fears of an economic slowdown, capping demand and pushing prices lower in the coming weeks,” Taha went on to note.

Rigzone has contacted the White House for comment on Taha’s statement. At the time of writing, the White House has not responded to Rigzone.

In a note sent to Rigzone by the Sparta Commodities team late Monday, Neil Crosby, Oil Analytics AVP at Sparta, said crude structure has firmed since mid-August, “while timespreads and flat prices strengthened on geopolitical risk returning and macro support”.

“DFLs have bottomed and North Sea FOBs are slowly rebounding. Despite this, North Sea light remains the cheapest globally, which is one of the main distortions in pricing this week,” Crosby added in the note.

In a market comment sent to Rigzone on Friday, Van Ha Trinh, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, said oil prices had stabilized to a certain extent in recent sessions but warned that they “could remain under pressure amid ongoing concerns around supply and demand levels”.

“The increase in OPEC output during September has reinforced concerns about oversupply, and while a potential pause in production hikes after that could provide some short-term relief, traders are likely to remain cautious until there is clearer guidance from the next OPEC meeting,” Trinh added in the comment.

“The market’s direction could depend on whether the group signals restraint in the coming months or prioritizes market share, as either direction could set the tone for Q4 pricing,” Trinh continued.

At the same time, Russia remains an important wild card, Trinh noted in the statement.

“Although optimism around progress in negotiations has receded, a breakthrough could unlock additional flows of Russian crude into global markets, adding to the oversupply narrative,” Trinh said.

“Conversely, ongoing sanctions risk could provide some support to prices if supply is tighter,” Trinh added.

“On the demand side, uncertainty remains. Traders could continue to monitor economic data releases in the U.S. and China for clues on the direction of the economy,” Trinh continued.

“A softer trajectory in global demand would amplify the downside risk, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed selling pressure,” Trinh went on to state.

Rigzone has contacted OPEC and the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Trinh’s statement. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its Brent spot average crude oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 12.

According to that STEO, the EIA sees the Brent spot price averaging $67.22 per barrel this year and $51.43 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $68.89 per barrel in 2025 and $58.48 per barrel in 2026.

The EIA also cut its WTI average spot crude oil price forecast in its latest STEO. The EIA sees the WTI spot price averaging $63.58 per barrel in 2025 and $47.77 per barrel in 2026, according to its August STEO. In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.22 per barrel this year and $54.82 per barrel in 2026.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com