Where Will USA EPS Electricity Generation Come From in 2025?

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that total U.S. electricity generation from the electric power sector will come in at 4,244.2 billion kilowatt-hours (BK) in 2025.

The EIA projected in its latest STEO that 1,696.9 BK of that total will come from natural gas, which represents around 40 percent, and 1,046.7 BK will come from renewable energy sources, which represents around 25 percent.

Renewable energy sources included in the STEO comprised conventional hydropower, wind, biomass, geothermal, and solar. The solar category included generation from utility-scale (larger than one megawatt) solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power plants and excluded generation from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems, the STEO highlighted.

The EIA expects wind to contribute the largest figure to the renewable energy sources category this year, at 472.8 BK, the STEO showed. Solar is expected to come second in this category, with 291.5 BK, and biomass third, with 20.5 BK, the STEO highlighted.

Nuclear is projected in the STEO to be the third largest source of total U.S. electricity generation from the electric power sector, at 783.8 BK, and coal is forecast to be the fourth largest source, at 702.6 BK. Petroleum – comprising residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and other petroleum liquids – is expected to contribute 17.4 BK to the total, according to the STEO, which projected that other fossil gases will make up 3.0 BK and other non-renewable fuels will make up 1.4 BK. These comprise batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies, the STEO pointed out.

The EIA highlighted in its July STEO that total U.S. electricity generation from the electric power sector came in at 4,150.9 BK in 2024.

That STEO pointed out that 1,759.2 BK of the 2024 total U.S. electricity generation came from natural gas, which represents around 42 percent, and that 947.7 BK came from renewable energy sources, which represents around 23 percent. The STEO highlighted that nuclear made up 782.0 BK, coal made up 648.2 BK, petroleum made up 14.5 BK, other fossil gases made up 2.8 BK, and other nonrenewable fuels made up 2.5 BK of total U.S. electricity generation last year.

The EIA’s latest STEO also projected that total U.S. electricity generation from the electric power sector will come in at 4,340.0 BK in 2026.

In the STEO, the EIA projects that 1,726.0 BK of this total will come from natural gas, which represents around 40 percent, and that 1,146.1 BK will come from renewable energy sources, which represents around 26 percent. 

This STEO forecast that nuclear will make up 800.2 BK of 2026 total U.S. electricity generation from the electric power sector, coal will make up 657.9 BK, petroleum will make up 14.4 BK, other fossil gases will make up 3.1 BK, and other nonrenewable fuels will make up 0.2 BK of total U.S. electricity generation next year.

In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that total U.S. electricity generation from the electric power sector would be 4,237.0 BK this year and 4,336.6 BK next year. Natural gas was projected to make up 1,698.2 BK of the 2025 total and 1,719.7 BK of the 2026 total, and renewable energy sources were forecast to make up 1,052.7 BK of this year’s total and 1,162.5 BK of next year’s total.

The EIA highlights in its STEOs that the electric power sector “includes utility-scale generating power plants (total capacity is larger than one megawatt) operated by electric utilities and independent power producers whose primary business is to sell electricity over the transmission grid for consumption by the public”.

On its website, the EIA states that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

The organization describes itself on its site as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) but states in its STEOs that the views in those reports do not represent those of the DOE or any other federal agencies.

It adds on its site that it is “the nation’s premier source of energy information, and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com