In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that it sees the U.S. Henry Hub spot price averaging $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) over the winter season, which it pointed out runs from November to March.
The EIA also projected in its latest STEO that, during this time, the U.S. Henry Hub spot price will peak in January at $4.25 per MMBtu.
In its November STEO, the EIA forecast that the U.S. Henry Hub spot price will average $3.47 per MMBtu overall in 2025 and $4.02 per MMBtu overall in 2026. The EIA projected that the U.S. Henry Hub spot price would come in at $3.42 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.94 per MMBtu in 2026 in its previous STEO, which was released in October. Both STEOs showed that the 2024 U.S. Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.19 per MMBtu.
The EIA’s latest STEO projected that the commodity will come in at $3.51 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of this year, $3.98 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $3.38 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2026, $3.97 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.73 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its October STEO, the EIA forecast that the U.S. Henry Hub spot price would average $3.33 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2025, $3.86 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $3.31 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.91 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.68 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
NatGas in Winter
In its latest STEO, the EIA noted that “natural gas prices typically rise during the winter as demand for space heating increases and consumption of natural gas peaks for the year”.
“This winter, we expect rising LNG exports to increase demand for U.S. natural gas as well,” the EIA added.
The EIA highlighted in its November STEO that, this October, U.S. inventories ended the month about the same as last year and four percent above the five-year average from 2020 to 2024.
“Despite similar inventory levels, the October monthly Henry Hub price averaged about $3.20 per MMBtu, up 45 percent from the same month last year. We expect prices to average $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026, up 16 percent from this year,” the EIA said.
The EIA pointed out in the STEO that Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana received approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to introduce natural gas into Block 17, “bringing the last remaining block at the 2.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) terminal into LNG production earlier than January 2026, which is what we previously expected”.
“With this capacity online earlier than expected, we raised our forecast for LNG exports in 4Q25 by three percent compared with last month’s outlook,” the EIA added.
“We expect Golden Pass LNG Trains 1-2 and Corpus Christi Stage 3 Blocks 4-7 will begin shipping cargoes in 2026, adding 2.1 Bcfpd of LNG export capacity by the end of the year,” it continued.
Demand
The EIA noted in its November STEO that it expects lower domestic natural gas consumption during the 2025-26 winter heating season because of a warmer weather forecast compared with last winter.
“We expect U.S. natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors this winter, which largely stems from space heating, to average 36.5 Bcfpd, five percent less than last winter and two percent less than the five-year (2020-2024) average,” the EIA said.
“Temperatures across much of the country were slightly above normal into the first week of November, and forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show the South Central and Southwestern United States will have above average temperatures for much of the month,” it added.
“Our forecast includes three percent fewer heating degree days (HDDs) than last winter and two percent fewer HDDs than the prior five year average,” it went on to state.
Other Forecasts
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on November 20, BMI projected that the front month Natural Gas Henry Hub price will average $3.50 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.80 per MMBtu in 2026.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on November 18, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX basis Henry Hub nearby future U.S. natural gas price will average $3.550 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.025 per MMBtu in 2026.
Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will come in at $3.800 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of this year, $4.200 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $3.600 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.800 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.500 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2026.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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