As things stand right now, if there is no situation with Iran, then I actually favor fading this market. You are starting to see that a little bit on the hourly chart, as we may try to drop from here. But heading into what is, for the most part, a 3-day weekend, you really don’t want to be exposed to oil, in my honest opinion.
Bitcoin
Another market that I’m watching very closely is Bitcoin because it is starting to show signs of life again. The day so far on Friday has been a little bit negative, and it’s worth noting that Thursday was as well, but we shot straight up in the air on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
I look at this as a market that is at a point of inflection. We have broken above a significant barrier in the form of $95,000, and I do think the longer we stay above $95,000, the more likely it is we grind higher. Anything above the 50-day EMA looks pretty good to me, which is all the way down at $92,161.
I do recognize that the 200-day EMA is at $99,500, and it will probably be a little bit of a technical barrier, but I still have Bitcoin going to $107,000. It’s just not going to be overnight. But it does look like a market that is breaking out of a massive consolidation and accumulation area.
Swedish Krona
The next thing I’m watching is the Swedish Krona. This is a currency that, despite the fact that it’s in the US Dollar Index, a lot of traders don’t pay attention to it. But right now, it is the 2nd best performing G10 currency at the moment, with the exception of the Australian dollar being stronger than it.
The primary driver is the Swedish Central Bank’s hawkish hold. In other words, they are holding at 1.75%, and while that’s not considered to be a huge amount of interest, it is a different look than many other central banks. They are still out there assuming that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, will cut rates, and that has driven the dollar down to 9.23 Krona.
