U.S. oil production is at an all time high but growth is slowing.
That’s what analysts at Standard Chartered Bank said in a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team last week, highlighting that “total U.S. crude oil production recorded an all time high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June 2025, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)”.
This production figure exceeded the previous high of October 2024 by 50,000 barrels per day, and the pre-COVID November 2019 high by 582,000 barrels per day, the analysts pointed out in the report.
“The impending peak in U.S. crude oil production has been much discussed and long forecast; indeed, production in some key states appears to have already peaked,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts stated in the report.
“The year on year trend shows a clear growth slowdown following the immediate post-COVID recovery, with year on year growth in June of 328,000 barrels per day,” they added.
“Still the dominant state in terms of volumes, production in Texas fell 33,000 barrels per day year on year and is now 109,000 barrels per day lower than its October 2024 peak of 5.832 million barrels per day,” they continued.
“Extrapolating the decelerating year on year growth trend implies that U.S. production will peak nine months from June, at c.14.34 million barrels per day in March 2026, before declines set in,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts predicted.
The analysts warned in the report that, “if a peak is to be avoided, then additional new production (driven by drilling and completion activity, technological advancements, geological quality and operational efficiencies) must exceed the decline rates of existing wells”.
“The recent earnings season highlighted widespread strategic adjustments among shale producers and vocal concerns about operational pullbacks in the low-price environment, but also an increase in hedging activity, which provides some increased price protection,” they added.
“The U.S. oil rig count has fallen from its year to date high of 488 in mid-February, to 410 in early August, but has stabilized for the past four weeks (according to Baker Hughes),” they continued.
The analysts went on to state, however, that “the productivity per rig for new wells has increased from c.800 barrels per day through 2022 into early 2023, to over 1,000 barrels per day in mid-2025, which may prove critical for this balance going forward”.
Rigzone has contacted the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) for comment on the Standard Chartered report. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
A data page on the EIA website – which displays monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, was last updated on August 29, and includes data from January 1920 to June 2025 – revealed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.58 million barrels per day in June.
This figure is the highest in the data set, with the second highest figure coming in October 2024, at 13.530 million barrels per day. The third highest figure in the data set was seen in April this year, at 13.466 million barrels per day.
Monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 21 occasions, according to the data page. Four of these were seen in 2023, 11 came in 2024, and six were in 2025, the data page highlighted.
Baker Hughes’ latest North America rotary rig count, which was released on September 5, showed the total U.S. rig count standing at 537. Of these rigs, 414 were labeled in the count as oil rigs, 118 were labeled as gas rigs, and five were labeled as miscellaneous rigs.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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