US liquefied natural gas exports are set to hit a record high this month, helping to tame prices in Asia and Europe as winter begins.
The US is expected to ship 10.7 million tons in November, according to predictive ship-tracking data from Kpler. That’s up roughly 40% from the same month last year, the data showed.
The additional supply could push gas prices in Europe and Asia lower over the next few months, even though colder weather will boost consumption of the heating fuel. European gas futures fell to the lowest level in more than a year on Thursday, while prices in Asia, home to the largest importers, are at the lowest level in about a month.
New projects are set to keep lifting US LNG exports for years, with output poised to double by the end of the decade. The Plaquemines facility is currently ramping-up output, while Golden Pass could send its first shipment before the end of winter.
More News:
Gail partially awards a swap tender seeking to sell two LNG cargoes from the US for Jan.-March loading US cargoes in exchange for Jan.-Feb. shipments to India
Kansai Electric, a Japanese utility, purchased an LNG cargo on a DES basis for early-April delivery to Japan
Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand purchased an LNG cargo on a DES basis for Jan. 28-30 delivery to Thailand
Indian Oil Corp. purchased an LNG shipment on a DES basis for Jan. 11 delivery to the Dahej terminal for around $10.4/mmbtu
The Arctic Vostok tanker, which was carrying a cargo from the US-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 export plant in Russia, left the Beihai import terminal in southern China on Thursday after unloading
Centrica Energy signed a 15-year sale and purchase agreement to supply liquefied natural gas to Honduras
Drivers:
China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 200k tons on Nov. 26, ~5.7% lower than a year ago, according to ship-tracking data
European gas storage levels were ~77% full on Nov. 26, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~88%
Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 243k tons/day on Nov. 26, 50% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data
Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~18.5 bcf/day on Nov. 26, +8.4% w/w: BNEF
Vessel Rates:
Pacific spot earnings for a 174k cubic-meter vessel were at $87,000 on Thursday, flat from the previous session, according to data from Spark Commodities, based on assessments from LNG shipbrokers
Atlantic earnings were at $141,250, up ~1.4% from the previous session
NOTE: Spark values calculated on a round-trip basis, including hire, ballast bonus and lump sum estimates
Prices:
Japan-Korea Marker futures on Nymex closed on Thursday due to holiday
Dutch TTF futures for December delivery -1.2% to $9.860 on Thursday
January contract -1.1% to $9.915
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