The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) average spot crude oil price forecast in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 12.
According to this STEO, the EIA sees the WTI spot price averaging $63.58 per barrel in 2025 and $47.77 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.22 per barrel this year and $54.82 per barrel in 2026.
Both STEOs highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel in 2024.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s August STEO showed that the organization expects the WTI spot price to come in at $64.20 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $54.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $45.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $46.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $50.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In its previous July STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $64.69 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $60.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $56.00 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $55.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $54.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s August STEO highlighted that the WTI spot price came in at $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter and $64.63 per barrel in the second quarter. The EIA’s July STEO also highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter. It projected that the second quarter WTI spot price would average $64.69 per barrel.
A report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team late Tuesday showed that Standard Chartered was forecasting that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price would average $58 per barrel in 2025 and $75 per barrel in 2026.
In that report, Standard Chartered saw the commodity averaging $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $68 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $78 per barrel in the third quarter, and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on July 8, the company had identical forecasts for the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price.
A J.P. Morgan research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on August 11 showed that J.P. Morgan expected the WTI crude price to average $63 per barrel this year and $54 per barrel next year.
In that research note, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude price would come in at $59 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters of 2026, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.
A J.P. Morgan research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on July 14 had identical forecasts for the WTI crude price.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on August 8, BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price would average $65 per barrel in 2025 and $64 per barrel in 2026. A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on July 11 had identical forecasts for the front month WTI crude price.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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