In its July short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on July 8, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price forecast.
According to this STEO, the EIA expects the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price to average $3.61 per gallon in 2025 and $3.59 per gallon in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in June, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would come in at $3.52 per gallon this year and $3.58 per gallon next year. Both STEOs highlighted that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.76 per gallon in 2024.
The EIA’s latest STEO forecast that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price will average $3.67 per gallon in the third quarter of 2026, $3.59 per gallon in the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of next year, $3.56 per gallon in the second quarter of 2026, $3.58 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.61 per gallon in the fourth quarter of next year. This STEO showed that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.63 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025 and $3.56 per gallon in the second quarter.
In its previous June STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would come in at $3.51 per gallon in the second quarter of 2025, $3.44 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.48 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.56 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $3.57 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.59 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.62 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026. That STEO also highlighted that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.63 per gallon in the first quarter of this year.
In its latest diesel fuel update, which was released on July 15, the EIA showed that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.727 per gallon on June 30, $3.739 per gallon on July 7, and $3.758 per gallon on July 14. The July 14 price was $0.068 lower than the year ago price, the fuel update outlined.
Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest on-highway diesel fuel price as of July 14, at $4.498 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown in the update to have the lowest on-highway diesel fuel price as of July 14, at $3.403 per gallon.
A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.
The EIA diesel fuel update, which pegged the diesel retail price at $3.50 per gallon in May, showed that 45 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 23 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 17 percent went towards taxes, and 15 percent went towards refining costs.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average U.S. diesel price is $3.729 per gallon, as of July 18. Yesterday’s average was $3.730 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.706 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.595 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.847 per gallon, the site showed.
The highest recorded average price for diesel in the U.S. was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.815 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices site outlined.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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