USA EIA Reveals Latest USA Crude Oil Production Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest U.S. crude oil production forecast in its July short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.

In its July STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will average 13.37 million barrels per day across 2025 and 2026. The STEO highlighted that this output came in at 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024.

The EIA forecast in its July STEO that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.36 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, 13.43 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.42 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 13.48 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.33 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.26 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. 

In its latest STEO, the EIA projected that Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will provide 11.14 million barrels per day of the total 2025 U.S. crude oil output figure and 11.09 million barrels per day of the total 2026 figure. The EIA expects the Federal Gulf of America to provide 1.80 million barrels per day of this year’s total and 1.84 million barrels per day of next year’s total, and Alaska to provide 0.43 million barrels per day of the 2025 total and 0.44 million barrels per day of the 2026 total, the STEO showed.

In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would come in at 13.42 million barrels per day this year and 13.37 million barrels per day next year.

The EIA projected in its June STEO that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025, 13.41 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.43 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.36 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 13.45 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 13.34 million barrels per day across the third and fourth quarters of next year.

In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, would provide 11.17 million barrels per day of the total 2025 U.S. crude oil output figure and 11.09 million barrels per day of the total 2026 figure. The EIA expected the Federal Gulf of America to provide 1.81 million barrels per day of this year’s total and 1.85 million barrels per day of next year’s total, and Alaska to provide 0.43 million barrels per day of the 2025 total and 0.44 million barrels per day of the 2026 total, that STEO showed.

A data page on the EIA website showing monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, which was last updated on June 30 and which includes data from January 1920 to April 2025, showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 20 occasions.

Five of those were in 2023, 11 were in 2024, and four were in 2025, according to the data page, which showed that the highest monthly U.S. field production of crude oil figure came in April 2025, at 13.468 million barrels per day.

A data page on the EIA site showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was also last updated on June 30 and which includes data from 1859 to 2024, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.208 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.935 million barrels per day, the data showed.

“We forecast U.S. crude oil production will generally decline from almost 13.5 million barrels per day in April 2025 to 13.3 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, practically unchanged from our June STEO,” the EIA said in its July STEO.

“The drop in U.S. crude oil production reflects our expectation that the WTI crude oil spot price will fall through 2026, ending the year at $53 per barrel, a decline of about 22 percent from the June 2025 price. Declining prices mean U.S. oil producers will drill and complete fewer wells,” it added.

U.S. producers have slowed drilling and completion activity this year, the EIA noted in its latest STEO.

“In 1H25, well completions in the oil-producing regions of the Lower 48 states totaled 5,164 wells. This number excludes Alaska and the Gulf of America, which do not produce tight oil and are subject to different investment and production cycles,” it added.

“It also excludes Haynesville and Appalachia, which primarily produce natural gas. This year had the fewest completions in the first six months of any year since 2021,” it said.

Last year, higher oil output per well meant that U.S. crude oil production grew despite relatively low well completions, the EIA stated in its July STEO.

“This year, productivity growth has been mixed; crude oil production from newly completed wells is growing more slowly or declining in the major oil-producing regions,” it noted.

“We assess the muted productivity growth will be insufficient to offset the low drilling and completion activity observed in the falling rig count and number of wells completed,” the EIA added.

“With falling crude oil prices in our forecast, we expect recent downward trends in rig counts and well completions to continue,” it said.

“We estimate that U.S. producers would have to complete more than 5,400 wells in 2H25 to match the number of wells completed in all of 2024. About the same number of wells (5,500) were completed in 2H23 when oil prices were much higher,” the EIA went on to note.

The EIA states on its website that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

The organization describes itself on its site as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) but states in its STEOs that the views in those reports do not represent those of the DOE or any other federal agencies.

It adds on its site that it is “the nation’s premier source of energy information, and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government”.

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