In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average price forecast for 2025 and 2026.
According to this STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $65.15 per barrel in 2025 and $51.26 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.00 per barrel in 2025 and $48.50 per barrel in 2026. The EIA’s September STEO forecast that the WTI spot price average would come in at $64.16 per barrel this year and $47.77 per barrel next year.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the WTI spot price will average $58.65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $50.30 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $50.68 per barrel in the second quarter, and $52.00 per barrel across the third and fourth quarters of 2026.
The EIA’s October STEO saw the WTI spot price averaging $58.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year, $47.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $48.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $49.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its September STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would come in at $65.14 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $55.41 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $45.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $46.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $50.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The EIA’s latest STEO showed that the WTI spot price averaged $65.78 per barrel in the third quarter, $64.63 per barrel in the second quarter, and $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter. This STEO also highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel overall in 2024.
In a research note sent to Rigzone by Natasha Kaneva, the head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan, on November 13, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude oil price will average $62 per barrel in 2025 and $53 per barrel in 2026. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will come in at $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on November 12, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $65.40 per barrel in 2025 and $59.90 per barrel in 2026. Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will come in at $61.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $58.50 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $59.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $60.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $61.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Standard Chartered also projected in this report that the commodity will average $63.50 per barrel in 2027.
BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price will average $65.00 per barrel in 2025 and $64.00 per barrel in 2026 back in a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on October 24. BMI is a Fitch Solutions Company, that report highlighted.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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