In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on October 7, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
According to its latest STEO, the EIA now sees the commodity averaging $65.00 per barrel this year and $48.50 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in September, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $64.16 per barrel in 2025 and $47.77 per barrel in 2026.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s October STEO showed that the EIA sees the WTI spot price coming in at $58.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $47.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $48.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $49.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its previous September STEO, the EIA forecast that the commodity would average $65.14 per barrel in the third quarter, $55.41 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $45.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $46.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $50.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s October STEO showed that the WTI spot price averaged $65.79 per barrel in the third quarter of this year. Both STEOs highlighted that the commodity averaged $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $64.63 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, and $76.60 per barrel overall in 2024.
In a J.P. Morgan report sent to Rigzone on Friday by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at the company, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude oil price will average $62 per barrel this year and $53 per barrel next year. In that report, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will come in at $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters of 2026, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
A report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on Wednesday projected that the NYMEX WTI nearby future crude oil price will average $58 per barrel in 2025 and $75 per barrel in 2026. This report forecast that the commodity will come in at $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $68 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $78 per barrel in the third quarter, and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
A report sent to Rigzone by the Morningstar team on Monday showed that the company is expecting the WTI oil price to average $65 per barrel in 2025 and $60 per barrel in 2026 under its base case. The company’s “low price/stress case” sees WTI averaging $63 per barrel this year and $45 per barrel next year, the report highlighted.
“We are increasing our full-year 2025 WTI price forecast to $65 per barrel from $60 per barrel to reflect actual year to date prices,” Morningstar analysts said in the report.
“There is no change to our previous full-year WTI price forecast of $60 per barrel for both 2026 and 2027, which reflects our continued anticipation for a slowing global economy to be a headwind for crude oil demand and pricing,” the analysts added.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on October 3, BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price would average $65 per barrel in 2025 and $64 per barrel in 2024.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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