The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on October 7.
According to this STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaging 13.53 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.51 million barrels per day in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in September, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would average 13.44 million barrels per day this year and 13.30 million barrels per day next year.
The EIA’s October STEO sees U.S. crude oil output coming in at 13.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, 13.62 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.53 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.48 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
In its September STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.51 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, 13.45 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.39 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.20 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.17 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s latest STEO projected that the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will contribute 11.22 million barrels per day of the total projected figure for 2025 and 11.10 million barrels per day of the total projected figure for 2026. The Federal Gulf of America is expected to contribute 1.89 million barrels per day to this year’s total projected figure and 1.96 million barrels per day to next year’s total projected figure, the STEO showed. Alaska is projected to contribute 0.42 million barrels per day to this year’s expected total figure and 0.45 million barrels per day to next year’s expected total figure, the STEO revealed.
“In July, U.S. crude oil production averaged more than 13.6 million barrels per day, the most in any month on record,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“Production in July was higher than we previously estimated, which raised the starting point for our U.S. crude oil production forecast. In addition, we raised our forecast for crude oil production in the Gulf of America as some projects are ramping up production faster than we had expected,” the EIA added.
“Although we expect crude oil production will decline from its recent peak as oil prices fall, we now forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. Our 2026 forecast increased by 0.2 million barrels per day from last month,” the EIA continued.
A data page on the EIA site displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, which was last updated on September 30 and which includes data from January 1920 to July 2025, showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.642 million barrels per day in July.
This figure is the highest in the data set, with the second highest figure coming in June, at 13.533 million barrels per day, and the third highest figure coming in October 2024, at 13.530 million barrels per day.
Monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 22 occasions, according to the data page. Four of these were seen in 2023, 11 came in 2024, and seven were in 2025, the data page highlighted.
A data page on the EIA site displaying annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was also last updated on September 30 and which includes data from 1859 to 2024, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day, the data showed.
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