The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2025 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 12.
In this STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, will average 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025. In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA projected that the country’s crude oil output, including lease condensate, would average 13.37 million barrels per day this year.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO showed that the EIA sees U.S. crude oil production averaging 13.39 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 13.50 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. This STEO highlighted that U.S. crude oil output averaged 13.28 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025 and 13.46 million barrels per day in the second quarter.
In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would come in at 13.36 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 and 13.43 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. That STEO highlighted that U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.28 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 13.41 million barrels per day in the second quarter.
The EIA’s August STEO forecast that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will average 13.28 million barrels per day in 2026. Its July STEO projected that U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, would average 13.37 million barrels per day next year.
A quarterly breakdown in the EIA’s August STEO showed that the EIA sees U.S. crude oil production averaging 13.42 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.39 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.19 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.12 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s July STEO projected that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.42 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 13.48 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.33 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.26 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Both STEOs highlighted that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaged 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024.
“We expect increases in well productivity will push U.S. crude oil production to an all-time high near 13.6 million barrels per day in December 2025,” the EIA noted in its latest STEO.
“However, as crude oil prices fall, we expect U.S. producers will accelerate the decreases in drilling and well completion activity that have been ongoing through most of this year, and we forecast U.S. crude oil production will decline to 13.1 million barrels per day by 4Q26,” it added.
“On an annual basis, we now forecast crude oil production will average 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.3 million barrels per day in 2026,” the EIA highlighted in its latest STEO.
A data page on the EIA website showing monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, which was last updated on July 31 and which includes data from January 1920 to May 2025, showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 21 occasions.
Five of those were in 2023, 11 were in 2024, and five were in 2025, according to the data page, which showed that the highest monthly U.S. field production of crude oil figure came in May 2025, at 13.488 million barrels per day.
A data page on the EIA site showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was also last updated on July 31 and which includes data from 1859 to 2024, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.208 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.935 million barrels per day, the data showed.
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, the EIA states on its website.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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