USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop Week on Week

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by one million barrels from the week ending October 10 to the week ending October 17.

That’s what the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on October 22 and included data for the week ending October 17.

In that report, the EIA showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 422.8 million barrels on October 17, 423.8 million barrels on October 10, and 426.0 million barrels on October 18, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 408.6 million barrels on October 17, 407.7 million barrels on October 10, and 384.6 million barrels on October 18, 2024, the report revealed.

Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.693 billion barrels on October 17, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 3.4 million barrels week on week and up 50.7 million barrels year on year, the report showed

“At 422.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about four percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

“Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased and blending components inventories decreased last week,” it added.

“Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about seven percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels from last week and are 12 percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it continued.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending October 17, according to the EIA report, which outlined that this was 601,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.

“Refineries operated at 88.6 percent of their operable capacity last week,” the EIA said in the report.

“Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased by 40,000 barrels per day last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day,” it added.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.9 million barrels per day last week, the report noted. This was an increase of 393,000 barrels per day from the previous week, the EIA highlighted in the report.

“Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.9 million barrels per day, 4.6 percent less than the same four-week period last year,” the EIA said.

“Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 505,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 76,000 barrels per day,” it added.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.5 million barrels a day, down by 0.1 percent from the same period last year, the EIA stated in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

“Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, down by 3.6 percent from the same as the last year period,” it added.

“Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 0.2 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 0.1 percent compared with the same four-week period last year,” the EIA continued.

Analyst Take

In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Thursday, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye highlighted that the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report “painted a mildly bullish picture, showing broad draws across the barrel despite higher refinery runs and imports”.

“Commercial crude inventories declined by one million barrels, pulling total stocks to 422.8 million barrels, roughly four percent below the five-year average. The draw comes as refineries lifted throughput to 15.7 million barrels per day (up 0.6 million barrels per day on the week) and operated at 88.6 percent utilization,” he pointed out.

“Gasoline inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels, now slightly below their five-year average, while diesel inventories dropped by 1.5 million barrels and continue to stand seven percent below seasonal norms. The numbers suggest continued tightness in U.S. inventories, especially in middle distillates,” he added.

In the report, Hvalbye noted that the U.S. refining sector remains supported by a tight diesel market, “with below-average inventories continuing to underpin strong refining margins”.

“After building from July through early September, diesel stockpiles have begun to trend lower again as harvest season boosts demand in the Midwest,” he said.

“Where inventories go from here will largely determine how long refiners can maintain these unusually wide diesel margins,” he added.

Hvalbye also outlined in the report that recent EIA data “has shown swings in refinery throughput, from record-high seasonal levels to the lowest since 2021 in just two weeks”.

“This likely reflects planned turnarounds and secondary unit issues in PADD 3 (Texas Gulf region), rather than structural demand weakness. The pace of recovery in refinery runs over the coming weeks will be an important short-term indicator for crude balances,” he added.

The SEB analyst went on to state in the report that, overall, the latest data “confirm that U.S. inventories remain somewhat tight, while refinery operations and exports continue to drive short-term volatility”.

“Combined with renewed geopolitical risk, the … [EIA] report adds another layer of supportive fundamentals for crude in the near term,” he said.

“Meanwhile, barrels at sea continue to rise, yet we have not seen these volumes reflected in global onshore inventories – not this week either,” he added.

“In other words, another counter-seasonal draw in U.S. commercial crude stocks continues to provide downside support, underscoring that inventories are still tightening when they should normally be building,” Hvalbye continued.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com